Is the United States unprepared to fight China in the western Pacific? Probably. But trying to jam more American forces into the scarce land bases in the western Pacific is not a solution.
Want another big problem? The Biden administration continues to divide U.S. forces between Europe and the Pacific, further weakening the already insufficient forces available to deter or defeat China in a conflict over Taiwan. The U.S. needs its European allies to step up so that the U.S. Air Force and Navy can redeploy forces to the Pacific.
One, our European allies are stepping up. Slowly. But they are. And the truth is that America's military strength in Europe has dropped dramatically since the Cold War. Even Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago has reversed that decrease by only a tiny fraction. I addressed the notion that we defend Europe too much in this post on America's interest in defending Europe:
Six, if you think America shouldn't need nearly as much military power to defend Europe from Russia compared to when the threat was the USSR, well ... mission accomplished!
At the height of the Cold War America had lots of troops in Europe with large numbers of tanks, artillery, and aircraft. In the seas around Europe, the American Navy roamed to contain the Soviet navy and keep lines of supply from North America to Europe intact. America's troop level in Europe--even with enhancements to reassure NATO allies while Russia is at war with Ukraine--is a tiny fraction of Cold War commitments. Compare the 100,000+ American troops in Europe now--up from 80,000 in the month before Russia invaded this year--to the 450,000+ Americans in Europe in 1959, the peak year of troop strength there.
American naval and air power in Europe has declined, as part of the overall reduction. No doubt, if needed in Asia they will sail and fly that way.
Two [F-35] squadrons and a single air defense unit are not depriving INDOPACOM of assets. There are limited bases in the Pacific for Army and Air Force assets to battle China. They are crowded enough already.
Also, two missile defense destroyers had best not be the difference between victory and defeat in the Pacific. One, they are needed in Europe for mobile missile defense. Two, they can sail to the Pacific if needed.
Urging more American forces for the Pacific in our limited facilities just creates a target-rich environment for a Chinese first strike:
A classified Pentagon wargame simulated a Chinese push to take control of the South China Sea. The Air Force officer, charged with plotting the service’s future, learned that China’s well-stocked missile force had rained down on the bases and ports the U.S. relied on in the region, turning American combat aircraft and munitions into smoldering ruins in a matter of days.
I've long been wary of putting too much of our military power forward in too few bases. Survive the initial blow and then gather for the counter-attack, I say.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.
