Russia is back. And it has a plan.
Russia has a simple plan for glory:
Recover lost land mass, increase the population (ethnic Slavs preferred), expand the industrial and agricultural resource base and, well, nuclear weapons, and -- behold -- superpower status restored!
And Putin has clearly indicated he will stick with Phase 1 to enable the wondrous Phase 2 no matter what:
The military, and the war, are now the Russian leader’s absolute fixation. That he decided to promote the pro-war Telegram channels confirms the suspicion that the only public opinion which matters to him now is that of the military. In a way, the military and pro-war Telegram bloggers have become a substitute for Russian society, and public opinion at large.
Putin clearly had this in mind when he addressed the military: he didn’t limit himself to military matters or to the army’s problems but outlined what he saw as a future for Russia as a nation.
It’s a future that looks absolutely terrifying.
The all-out war which started in February as a presumably short military operation aiming to “denazify” Ukraine is going to be a long war. There was no indication of when and how it should end. Putin’s speech did not talk about any new objectives, but said that it is a continuation of the conflict Russia has been engaged in for centuries. Now it is time for the state and the Russian people to contribute to this war, he said.
And restoring Soviet methods to generate blood and treasure "contributions" for the military is back.
Putin is certainly trying to look in command:
Putin delivered his [annual New Year's Eve] address from the headquarters of the Southern Military District (SMD) as part of an ongoing effort to portray himself as an effective wartime leader actively in control of the war effort. Putin delivered his address from the Southern Military District in Rostov-on-Don with Russian military personnel in combat uniforms behind him.
But do the people around Putin think he can carry out his plan?
Several sources told The Post they believe that Putin does not have a plan for how to continue the full-scale invasion, which was launched just over 10 months ago.
"There is huge frustration among the people around him," an unnamed Russian billionaire, who is in contact with top-ranking officials in the Kremlin, told The Post. "He clearly doesn't know what to do."
Nonsense! Just as Putin is firmly in charge of the war, now, he's firmly in charge of the messaging to reassure his people that all is well:
In 2022 Putin’s political fortunes took a turn for the worse when his invasion of Ukraine quickly failed with the loss of thousands of armored vehicles, most of the combat unit officers and such high troop losses that he found a growing number of Russians turning against him. If not stabilized or reversed, that shift in public opinion could prove fatal for his continued ability to rule Russia.
Putin’s solution was to order the dezinformatsiya operation to cooperate with the VGTRK (All-Russia State Television and Radio Company) to convince Russians that the Ukraine operation was not a failure but had succeeded in stalling and exposing a secret NATO plan to weaken Russia and render it unable to rebuild the Russian empire and make Russia great again. Or at least keep Putin in power.
But somehow, there may be some growing doubts about achieving Putin's simple plan.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
UPDATE (Tuesday): Russia's Wagner Group offensive in the Donbas has all but captured the salt-mine town of Soledar.
If I was in charge of the Ukrainians, I'd have placed a massive set of explosives in the mines to detonate after the Wagner people mass troops in the area.
UPDATE: To me, Ukraine's forces appear more active on the Luhansk front.
UPDATE (Thursday): The largest Russian amphibious ship in the Black Sea and three submarines are among a surge of Russian ships putting to sea. Logistics support and a missile attack on Ukrainian civilian assets seem the most likely missions, when considered separately. I really doubt Russia is planning an amphibious landing.
Or maybe the Russian military wants to bombard the town of Soledar to avoid granting the Wagner Group too much credit for advances around there.
UPDATE (Friday): Russia likely took Soledar. But it probably isn't a sign that Russia is about to encircle Bakhmut.
UPDATE: Is this related to the Russian fleet deployment?
NATO said Friday it plans to deploy three surveillance planes to Romania next week to perform reconnaissance missions and to “monitor Russian military activity ” within the 30-nation military alliance’s territory.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
