Is the Ukraine war over? No. But if Russia has lost the initiative it is a good thing despite the tactical superiority of the defense over the offense.
I've noted that we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves about the war after Ukraine's decisive but relatively small victory on the Kharkov front. But this is not quite right:
While the Ukrainians have moved swiftly to bloody Russia’s nose, the Russians can simply fall back into defensive positions, consolidate their forces, and defend their gains in Donbas and the vital land bridge to Crimea that runs through Mariupol. As the Russians shift from offense to defense, their military position will get stronger — in military parlance, “defense is to offense as three is to one.”
First, people often get the 3:1 rule wrong. It is a ratio of power--with a number of factors contributing and not just troop numbers engaged--for tactical battles, and not a measure of necessary troop strength superiority overall in a war.
Second, in military parlance there's another saying. "Nobody ever won a war by sitting on the defensive."
Third, while being on the offensive is harder than being on the defensive, having the initiative has a number of advantages.
--One, you can choose enemy weak points to attack. Which is what Ukraine did on the Kharkov front.
--Two, having the initiative allows you to more easily take advantage of enemy mistakes. And it makes it more difficult for the enemy to take advantage of your mistakes. If you get the enemy running, of course. Otherwise a competent enemy will be able to counter-punch after blunting attacks. Which is what Ukraine is doing now with its counteroffensive after enduring and bleeding the Russian attackers.
--Three, the Russians don't appear to have either enough troops, good enough troops, good enough troop morale, good enough commanders, or good enough command and control to be good counter-punchers.
And finally, if Ukraine doesn't take advantage of Russia's culmination and seize the initiative, Russian weaknesses can't be exploited. Too few crappy troops with poor morale, commanders, command and control, and logistics can sit in their defenses pretty much forever if nobody attacks them.
The bottom line is that it is good that Ukraine is beginning to seize the initiative. Ukraine has to do a lot more to win this war. But seizing the initiative is necessary because Russia is sitting on Ukraine's land that it conquered.
And it is a good sign that Russia's thinly held line in Kharkov province broke and ran, with Ukraine capturing troops, equipment, and supplies. The offensive feeds itself in that situation.
More of that can happen if the Ukrainians keep pushing and the Russians fail to counter the Ukrainian new edge.
Mind you, I'm not advocating some kind of "cult of the offensive." Ukraine was on the strategic defensive. And rightly so. And while they lost significant territory, Ukraine inflicted heavy personnel and equipment losses on the Russians and may have demoralized Russian troops past recovery while inside Ukraine--if pushed.
And yes, Russia has dangerous options if it begins to lose. But using those options have problems of their own that could backfire on Putin or Russia. If there are no bad repercussions for extreme options, why didn't America nuke the Taliban as we started to lose there?
You can say that the Russians put more value on Ukraine than we put on Afghanistan. But we fought in Afghanistan for twenty years. That speaks to a high value. And only extreme paranoia allowed Russians to believe Ukraine was a military threat to Russian territorial integrity.
Don't be afraid of helping Ukraine pursue victory. I prefer the Russians as far east as possible in Europe.
NOTE: Winter War of 2022 updates continue here.
