Taiwan is belatedly rearming. It is not enough.
This should not be the debate in Taiwan:
In Taipei, where there’s widespread concern that the Taiwanese military has become outdated and ill-suited for countering the Chinese threat, the dilemma is how to best structure its military modernization drive. In short, Taiwan is deciding whether to become a “porcupine” – focusing on defensive capabilities aimed at buying time during a Chinese attack – or a “pit viper,” emphasizing the ability to strike back and deter China by raising the political costs at home of an attack.
The Chinese threat to Taiwan is so great and increasing so much that Taiwan should be spending much more before it decides whether to cut back on spending on some things to spend on others:
Talk that Taiwan needs to spend more wisely is not exactly untrue, but spending more is clearly the first thing Taiwan needs to do before prioritizing the many competing defense needs. Virtually any spending increase in any area will help Taiwan given the disparity that has been allowed to develop with the mainland autocrats.
Taiwan's defense problems are far greater than they were when the Taiwan Strait was an insurmountable barrier to Chinese invasion. But Taiwan still needs to defeat the Chinese in battle to retain their independence. There is no cheap asymmetrical way to defeat China. Taiwan must raise the costs of invasion at every part of the combat spectrum, from invasion to resistance, to deter China.
And for God's sake, Taiwan must be physically and psychologically ready to drive the Chinese invaders into the sea, as I warned in Military Review. And as I emphasized recently in the face of calls for an unbalanced Taiwanese defense effort.
Hopefully China's internal problems make them less likely to use their shiny new military:
While the Chinese government backs the aggressive strategy, the Chinese people are not cooperating. The population is shrinking and the new middle-class of university grads see China as a military threat as anxiously as Chinese neighbors do. These internal problems impose restraints on this new Chinese aggression policy and the ability to use it.
But Taiwan can't afford to rest their defenses solely on potential Chinese weakness. If Taiwan lacks the means to exploit any Chinese weakness, China will use the initiative to deny Taiwan the opportunity to benefit from any weakness.
