Too many people write that Russia has reason to be worried that NATO will invade Russia. No buffer zone is enough to satisfy that kind of paranoia. Enough is enough. Russia is too weak to justify so much fear.
I don't care if Russia has been invaded from the west in the past. Germany twice in the 20th century; France in the 19th century; and Sweden in the 18th century:
Russia sees itself as vulnerable, particularly from the west, where the most dangerous threats have historically originated. Belarus and Ukraine are the heart of Russian fears. The Ukrainian border is only a few hundred miles from Moscow and is therefore a major threat when in the hands of enemies.
So what? We're supposed to validate this paranoia by treating it as reasonable? Sure, understand their paranoia. But only for the purpose of dealing with a paranoid Russia--not for catering to it. No amount of buffer territory will end that kind of paranoia. I mean, seriously, Russia?
Vladimir Putin stressed that the responsibility [for the Ukraine crisis] should not be shifted onto the shoulders of Russia, since it is NATO that is making dangerous attempts to conquer Ukrainian territory and is building up its military potential at our borders," the Kremlin statement said.
The Russians shouldn't be allowed near sharp objects. That take on responsibility is sheer lunacy! What is their major malfunction?
Russia really needs a beating with the clue bat. Regardless of their past actions, today the Swedes, French, and Germans are practically toothless. They have no capacity or appetite for biting into such a large carcass as Russia. I don't buy the justification for Russian paranoia that at any minute the Western Europeans will rouse themselves from their torpor and arm up to conquer Holy Mother Russia.
What little NATO has done was provoked by Russian actions (and insane nuclear rhetoric):
Only in 2010 did Nato, belatedly, change its strategic concept to include the defence of its eastern members. That followed a cyberattack on Estonia in 2007, the war in Georgia in 2008 and a menacing military exercise in 2009 in which Russia rehearsed an attack on the Baltic states and a nuclear strike on Warsaw.
Even then Nato’s response was mainly on paper. Only Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2014 eventually prompted the deployment of small tripwire forces in Estonia (led by a British contingent), Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
This is exactly right:
We should tell Putin that his complaints are nonsense. Instead, we negotiate with ourselves about how to appease him.
Russia is fairly weak in conventional military power considering its huge borders. And I honestly wonder if many of Russia's nuclear weapons work. We don't have to surrender or give ground to every Russian threat.
We should tell Russia that the West will conduct mutually beneficial trade if the Russians play nice with other children. Flipping to the West would benefit Russia. And be good for the West.
But if Russia does not act responsibly, the West will help whoever Russia invades so they can kill Russian troops; and will sanction Russia until it contracts to the Grand Duchy of Moscow.
And then Putin will say "I knew they were out to get us!"
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
UPDATE: The Russian government certainly isn't bracing their people for a large war:
Russian media content targeting the domestic audience predominantly portrayed the idea of a Russian military operation in Ukraine as “Western hysteria” (Gazeta.ru, December 6). Similarly, Russian officials dismissed any concern about a potential armed invasion into Ukraine, pointing out that Russia had the right to deploy its military forces anywhere on its territory (Kommersant.ru, November 22).
Sure, Putin claims much or all of Ukraine is actually Russian territory. But that legal fiction doesn't prepare Russians for body bags flowing back home.
UPDATE: Ukraine can inflict significant casualties on the Russians even if NATO doesn't intervene because "Ukrainian Armed Forces are far better trained, equipped and resourced, and are more motivated than they were in 2014[.]"
UPDATE: Will Biden throw Ukraine under the bus to get peace for our time?
The Kremlin said Thursday that Russia submitted draft documents outlining security arrangements it wants to negotiate with the United States and its NATO allies amid s piraling tensions over Ukraine.
Tensions Russia created, I should note. It's worth a shot (from my last data dump):
