I suspect Pakistan is going to find it won a big problem by engineering a Taliban victory in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s powerful deep state has for decades quietly backed the Taliban. Now, as the group’s closest friend and main conduit to the outside world, Pakistan bears a big responsibility for Afghanistan’s fate. Yet it is far from clear whether the tactical advantage won by chasing other players out will translate into longer term gains—boosting Pakistan’s diplomatic weight and opening opportunities for commerce[.]
Diplomatic weight and commerce? Really? Those are the Pakistan government's objectives after the Taliban victory?
I think the Pakistan government should worry that their victory in Pakistan will lead to jihadis taking over the Pakistani state. As I wrote about Pakistan's victory and futile hope that China will now prop them up financially:
In the end, China will have the money and the assets that are built while Pakistan will have the jihadis and poverty that mix so well. And nukes, of course.
Without an easy outlet for jihadi urges in Pakistan across the border in Afghanistan, Pakistani Islamists may turn their attention fully against the Pakistani government. And the jihadi threat was there well before the Taliban won:
Militant attacks are on the rise in Pakistan amid a growing religiosity that has brought greater intolerance, prompting one expert to voice concern the country could be overwhelmed by religious extremism.
And with "victory", it is getting worse (back to the Economist article):
Already, radical Islamists have raised the Taliban flag over mosques in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital, and attacks by Muslim radicals within Pakistan have ticked up again after several years of decline. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, a monitoring site, Pakistan saw more big incidents in the first nine months of this year—67, with 329 people killed—than in all of 2020. The steepest rise has come in the past two months, in areas along the Afghan border.
Pakistan will have problems diverting the jihadi impulses once focused on Afghanistan to India because India has nukes and has lost tolerance for just enduring Pakistan's jihadi terror campaign.
And obviously Pakistan won't take up the cause of the Uighurs.
So Pakistan can probably look forward to jihadis looking at taking over the Pakistani government and its nukes.
Have a super sparkly day.
