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Wednesday, October 06, 2021

Do Personnel Equal Policy?

America and our western Pacific allies naturally focus on China's naval and air power. Is China more worried about their west?

This is interesting if personnel selection drives or reflects policy:

The careful selection by Chinese leader Xi Jinping of military officers for rapid promotion to key positions in the People’s Liberation Army may signal both a wish to consolidate the military behind him and a concern about emerging security challenges in China’s far western regions. ...

With its vast land borders, China has faced more disputes and threats on its northwestern frontier than from its southeastern maritime approaches since the imperial period. ...

That both Western Theatre commanders and political commissars are being selected for promotion suggests Beijing is focusing on emerging security challenges in its far western regions.

Maintaining the Chinese Communist Party monopoly on power is job one for the Chinese military.

But if the CCP is most worried about the western inland side of China, I say it is about time. I love it when a plan comes together:

Many years ago I figured we needed to push Chinese attention inland and away from Taiwan and our forces, noting that such a split of interest would compel China to become both a strong land power and a strong sea power, increasing the chance they'd fail at both.

Is it possible our defeat in Afghanistan will have a silver lining by making China worry more about instability in Central Asia leaking into China? And will that draw Chinese power and interest west, in line with the outlooks of promoted personnel?