Russia plans to expand infrastructure in the Kuril Islands, which Japan wants returned. This may be part of a stealthy Russian pivot to face China.
On the surface this looks like the usual Russian hostility toward America and our allies:
Russia plans to build 51 more pieces of military infrastructure on the Kuril islands, the state TASS news agency quoted Russia's defence ministry as saying on Monday.
While building in the Kuril Islands seemingly aligns with Chinese efforts to face off against Japan over the Senkaku Islands and to bully Japan into abandoning Taiwan, I have my doubts.
In general I wonder if Russia is finally starting to end their 20-year policy of appeasing China, which led to noisy and pointless hostility toward NATO:
If the Russians are serious about stopping that and instead blocking China, securing their Central Asian buffer zone is necessary. Here we go? ...
Without a secure Central Asia, Russia's ability to project and sustain military power in the Far East is put at risk.
There are signs of Russian sanity on the issue. We'll see if these are just moments of clarity in an otherwise dangerous Russian fantasy world or if America is trying to bring Russia in from the cold.
While on the surface a Russian move to reinforce their positions facing Japan refutes my suspicion, does it really?
Russia needs a peace treaty with Japan to be able to pivot against China to protect Russia's imperial conquest of Chinese territory from a rising China out to reverse a "century of humiliation" at the hands of Europeans. But not if it reveals Russia's intention to contain China before it is ready. Is Russia strong enough to do that? ...
And if Japan and Russia agree to a treaty, then Russia's pivot to the Far East could openly deal with China rather than pretend it is focused on Japan. Is Russia's conventional force level in the Far East, ostensibly aimed at Japan (and America indirectly), strong enough if focused on China to deter China?
Capabilities take time to build. Policies can change overnight. I suspect Russia is preparing capabilities for a serious change in policy by 2026.
