Oil War

I've mentioned the long-standing Gulf Arab effort to avoid the Strait of Hormuz to negate Iranian threats to close that waterway to Arab oil exports. For the Saudis that success is about to become reality.

Long ago I explained the pipeline angle:

During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, both Iran and Iraq went after each others oil exports to deprive the other of income. Iraq's oil exports through the Persian Gulf were immediately cut. Iran's were eventually attacked as Iraq deployed planes and anti-ship missiles to go after Iranian tankers sailing from the northern Gulf Kharg Island facilities.

Since the war went on for eight years, each side adapted. Iraq exported oil by tanker trucks and through pipelines through Turkey and Syria.

Iran moved oil export facilities further south to escape Iraqi planes and even looked at building facilities outside the Gulf shores.

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait pondered expanding oil pipelines to the Red Sea to avoid the Gulf fighting.

The oil trade is part of the long struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is one use Iran has for Yemen's Houthis. 

I haven't been sure what the status of those Red Sea pipelines are to bypass Hormuz. Strategypage notes this:

Unable to do much about Saudi air power, Iran has increased its efforts to disrupt traffic in the Red Sea, where several major Saudi ports handle most of the imports for western Saudi and a network of pipelines and ship loading facilities that soon will be able to handle all of Saudi oil exports. Suez Canal traffic passes through the Red Sea and the second largest Yemeni port is on the Red Sea. All this justifies the increased Iranian efforts to covertly use naval mines in the Red Sea. While these are Iranian mines, its proxy Yemen Shia rebels take credit for placing the mines in the water. Hundreds of these mines have been placed off the Yemen Red Sea coast in the last few years but the damage so far has been minor. [emphasis added]

The completion of these pipelines makes Iran's threats to close Strait of Hormuz much weaker. Which means the ability to shoot at or mine tankers in the Red Sea is more important to Iran.

No pretend nuclear deal will stop this fight. A new deal will only make it easier for Iran to wage the fight.