China may or may not be able to generate the naval and air power needed to defeat the United States and its allies at sea. Hopefully no war settles that question. But we should worry about the survivability of the aircraft carrier.
This analysis is singing to the choir here:
China’s buildup of anti-ship missiles alone could very well diminish the operational value of the cornerstone of the U.S. Navy – the aircraft carrier strike group – to the point of being obsolete.
I'm not quite ready to say the carrier is obsolete. But I think it is obsolete for the purpose of sea control. For power projection when the seas are controlled, they're great.
A couple decades ago, I envisioned the Ford class carrier as being too late for sea control at the dawn of network-centric warfare:
The question of whether large aircraft carriers deserve to be the center of our future naval strategy is a fundamental question that has not been adequately explored. Network-centric warfare signals the beginning of the end for the United States Navy's large aircraft carriers. They will lose their value as an instrument of forward presence and become valuable targets that, if struck, will encourage an enemy at the outset of war by apparently demonstrating that American technological prowess can be nullified and beaten. In the long run, large aircraft carriers will add little to most offensive missions and will absorb scarce resources and assets simply evading attack rather than striking the enemy and contributing to victory.
And with the utility of the carrier in doubt given China's anti-ship capabilities, allies have reason to wonder if America can defeat China. That alone gives China some diplomatic maneuvering room for the first time.
Sure, some will say the Chinese must think carriers are useful given that they are building them. But what if the Chinese think of them as diplomatic and power projection assets--not sea control assets. I've asked that I number of times, like here, here, and here.
The Navy hasn't had to fight to control the seas since 1944, recall. That reputation is getting old. Who knows if we still live up to it?
And do read all of that initial link.
