The Russians are finally retiring ancient ballistic missile nuclear submarines (SSBNs). What does this say about Russia's strategic nuclear deterrent?
Hmmm:
Over the last decade very few Russian SSBNs, old or new, have gone to sea except for brief training or testing cruises.
The cause of all this was the difficulty Russia had, and is still having, designing and building a post-Cold War class of SSBNs. These delays continue. For example, Russia was supposed to have the four new Borei class SSBNs in service by 2019, but that was delayed because sea trials of the fourth sub kept revealing new problems that had to be fixed. That led to another round of sea trials to make sure the modifications worked and did not cause additional problems. These latest sea trials took place successfully in mid-May 2021 and it finally entered service shortly thereafter.
We track the submarines closely. We can see they have problems. If the SSBNs are rarely leaving port, Russia has no sea-based survivable nuclear deterrent.
But what about Russia's land-based nukes? Can we really tell if they are in working order given that they basically sit in their silos? And even if mobile missiles are moving around, isn't that just a confirmation of truck technology?
Basically I want to know if Russia has a Potemkin Strategic Nuclear Deterrent. Is that why Russia has cheated on agreements to limit shorter-range nuclear missiles? Because they are easier to design and maintain?
