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Tuesday, June 29, 2021

The Image of Inevitable Victory

The Taliban are ramping up their information operations by taking insignificant district capitals. The cumulative effect might be devastating.

The Taliban keep taking district capitals (like our country seats) and publicizing the actions:

Yet, the seemingly never-ending succession of battlefield setbacks that suddenly accelerated this weekend is beginning to create a perception of inevitability about a Taliban takeover. It is a perception that, unless quickly reversed, risks snowballing into a self-fulfilling prophecy, Afghan officials warn.

The issue is whether Afghan government forces see these victories as meaningless or telegraphing a Taliban victory. This is a dangerous period when fear can override common sense:

On paper, the Afghan government can hold. But in the real world, fear of death is heightened by the American-led withdrawal. If enough time passes without a general collapse of government morale, the paper balance will win out. 

But the Taliban have a window of opportunity when fear of the unknown without America holding the hand of government forces makes government officials and forces scared enough to preemptively give up. 

Yet here we are doing nothing to bolster the Afghan forces' morale until the sense of panic and doom can pass. 

Not that the emerging problem isn't recognized:

America could slow down its withdrawal from Afghanistan amid rapid battlefield gains by the Taliban which have raised alarm in Nato capitals, the Pentagon said.  

Ashraf Ghani's forces have been swept out of many rural areas since the insurgents launched a nationwide offensive at the start of May.

But the real solution is to halt--not slow--the withdrawal and remain to help the government kill jihadis.

But no, instead of doing something that might help we will contribute to the impression being cultivated by the Taliban (despite their own heavy casualties) that the Taliban are destined to win:

The State Department and the Pentagon are working on plans to evacuate thousands of Afghan citizens who worked for the United States during the 20-year war in Afghanistan, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby confirmed Thursday at a news conference.

Brilliant.

I'm so old I remember when the Democrats were strident about Afghanistan being the "good war".

But that change was predictable.

When you start to kill jihadis, kill jihadis.