Can the Russians wean themselves off hostility toward NATO in time to pivot to face China?
The Russians loudly proclaim that NATO is their enemy while China is their glorious friend. Oh, so close!
The official lie is that the Russian Far East is prospering because of massive investments in infrastructure and local businesses. What the government plays down is that all of that is for turning the Russian Far East economy into something that serves and benefits only China. The new roads, pipelines, electric power production and railways are mainly to supply China. The Far East is still unable to attract Russians and more and more of the workforce consists of Chinese and North Koreans, including many there illegally or, in the case of North Koreans, as slave-labor. Chinese merchants and suppliers dominate the local economy and Russians fear that eventually the Chinese will act on the century’s old claims to the Far East and simply tell the Russian government; “it is ours” and Russian will not be able to do anything about it.
By threatening NATO, Russia has been hiding their appeasement of China to protect the Russian Far East. Russia recently extended their appeasement for five more years.
Russia has bigger problems than time. Hostility toward NATO had consequences:
The problem Russia would have is the problem encountered by the Soviet Union. As politico-military actions increased, the cost of defense spiraled. That spiraling cost collided with the fact that Russia failed to create a modern economy. The center of gravity of Russia’s economy is the production and sale of energy – exports account for about 30 percent of Russia’s gross domestic product, and about 40 percent of its exports are energy – but it doesn’t control the price of energy or the associated whims of the market, which can inflict major damage on the economy.
The Russians thought they could buy time by appeasing a growing China and threatening a weakening NATO. And perhaps they did. But the price was turning NATO from indifferent and hopeful to stunned and warily beefing up defenses that atrophied in Europe after the Cold War.
Will there be enough time--and capability--to strengthen Russia to have hope of stopping China short of using nukes?
