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Thursday, June 10, 2021

Home Field Advantage

The sometimes violent India-China border dispute is pushing India to improve its naval power.

This makes sense:

With some of the world's most important trade routes running through it, the Indian Ocean's value is hard to understate, which China has already recognized.

"Given its importance for China, it's pretty obvious the Chinese are elevating in priority the security needs for the maritime silk road," Heath said. "That means India has to be ready for possible situations involving China."

But Indian dominance in its home waters is far from assured. While India's navy has some advanced capabilities, China's People's Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, is substantially larger and more sophisticated.

Indeed, after border clashes I wondered if India would escalate to sea to interfere with those trade routes so crucial to China:

India would need to succeed enough at sea to use their distant blockade on China to pressure China to give up any territorial gains on the contested border. Which would be interesting to take notes on to measure how much a blockade would actually hurt China and how quickly it would hurt.

India would need to keep Pakistan and Myanmar (Burma) out of the war.

But China would have to worry about Thailand, Indonesia, or Singapore helping India by interfering with a Chinese line of supply from the Indian Ocean back to China.
India's fleet is outgunned. But India's ships would be short hops to ports for repair, refueling, and rearming. India basically just has to leave port to disrupt China's sea lines of communication. 

I have doubts that China can project sustained and significant naval power west of Singapore.

Especially with India's shield wall at sea for anything heading west.

But India should watch out for distant Chinese anti-ship ballistic missiles.