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Sunday, May 30, 2021

Weekend Data Dump

Apparently the threat of a Trumpist/white nationalist/Nazi/Confederate insurrection isn't the threat that was claimed all year. Via Instapundit.

The dominance of the Islamic State faction among their Islamists is the least of Nigeria's problems.

Don't fly over Belarus. This seems symbolic of closer submission to Russia. I don't buy that Russian silence indicates that Lukashenko is a "troublesome partner" for Putin. Alienating the West from Belarus with that airliner stunt is absolutely in Putin's interest. I don't buy that Putin didn't approve of the move even if Putin somehow wasn't consulted prior to the interception.

Is another round of BRAC worth it? In my career I wrote legislative resolutions arguing to keep Michigan military installations intact during previous rounds.

Don't disparage the Chinese navy as less than it appears and so not a real threat to the U.S. Navy with its long history of defeating naval enemies. One, even if China's ships aren't as good as they look because of lack of crew quality and leadership experience, China's navy just has to be good enough. Two, China has the edge of being concentrated at the theater of battle on day one. Three, China chooses day one. Four, China also has air and missile forces nearby to support it. And five, our Navy may not be as good as it appears or we think it is. It's been a long time since the Navy had to fight and shoot for naval superiority. Respect potential enemies. If they start a war they think they can win it on the terms they define as victory. They may be wrong. But they may be right.

The person checking for the vaccine passport should have their head down looking at their record-keeping sheet while the person entering holds up their "passport". Just like those TV shows where a person flashes their "badge" to pretend they're a cop. Then the checker can check off that person as clear. If the cops raid the place, the worshipper/patron could say they just lost their passport in a tragic boating accident.

I used to be happy that potential enemies had crippled military forces because of political or religious commissars second-guessing every unit commander's action based on purity of political/religious obedience. Perhaps we're on the way to woke commissars to even the field.

Biden tweeted opposition to anti-Semitic attacks. A commentator noted that if Trump had waited this long to condemn the violence, the media would have relentlessly hammered the president and claimed his delay was caused by latent anti-Semitism.

"Fact checker" says National Socialist Party isn't a party of national socialists

White supremacy is a BS threat to focus the national effort on. At worst it is a state and local law enforcement responsibility. Maybe the federal government could focus on external threats. Tip to Instapundit.

The only purpose for firing a single, small rocket at a base in Iraq where Americans are is to get a news story published.

Sometimes you have to create a "hockey stick" graph to show dramatic increases and sometimes you have to hide a hockey stick graph showing dramatic increases.

A French philosopher: "“Democratic civilization is the first in history to blame itself because another power is trying to destroy it.” Too many in the West are honored to be the victims of brutal Islamist killers. Our military efforts to defeat that threat have taken place over the objections of those proud wannabe victims. I don't wonder why brutal killers hate us. No, I wonder why so many in the West hate us.

Well, sure. I imagine one's chance of gaining a job or living in poverty is affected by the unemployment rate during your early adult years, too. And perhaps your chance of being killed in action goes up during a war. Tip to Instapundit.

The headline does not match the story. Flynn didn't say the pandemic was fabricated. He said the coverage of it was slanted to enable government control. Even that goes too far, I think, if the intent is to say it was done to gain government powers. But the statist impulses of Democrats ("never let a crisis go to waste") was clearly strengthened by the pandemic panic porn we were fed through 2020. To the detriment of Trump's chances in the November election.

Democrats have always been at war with Eastasia believed the Wuhan Flu lab origin theory.

America's birth rate during the Xi Jinping pandemic has dropped--although declines go back to the Great Recession of 2008-09--but "the latest population data and projections suggests that there is no immediate reason to be alarmed about the country’s prospective international standing. The United States will remain in a strong demographic position with respect to its competitors for decades to come." It's all relative, even if not ideal. I suspect the long-lasting effects of the Great Recession did not have enough time to restore birth rates during Trump's expansion. It was too short before the pandemic screwed things up again. We may yet recover. Still, no mention of child car seat requirements for the lower family sizes. Limiting children to the two back seats in the most affordable vehicles is a real limit to family size.

A separate note on that the prior article's statement that by 2050 Nigeria will likely be the third largest country, surpassing America. If Nigeria's population goes up that much, there is no way Nigeria will be a single country.

BALTOPS: "The U.S. Navy announced plans on Monday for the 50th Baltic Operations, a 13-day multinational exercise in the Baltic Region, to begin on June 6." Amphibious operations are part of it. In the Cold War, keeping the Soviets from hitting Denmark and breaking out into the North Sea was the main NATO job there. Now offensive operations are possible if the Russians begin a war.

OMG! When I woke up Tuesday morning my grocery store had sent me an email saying masks are optional if you are vaccinated. I walked in without a mask. Staff wore masks. And while the store early in the morning was not crowded, only two other people did not wear masks. So maybe 15-20% of customers without. It felt great. And nobody bugged me. If crowded I might have worn a mask anyway. We'll see. 

Pakistan remains its own and most dangerous worst enemy. On the bright side for Afghanistan post-America, Pakistan no longer supports the Taliban gaining power. The end of American arms sales hurt, it seems.

Russian naval woes.

Democrats claimed Trump caused anti-Asian violence and discrimination by calling COVID-19 the "China Virus", as past viruses were identified by geographic location. But Democrats seem to be doing fine with anti-Asian violence and discrimination without any alleged prodding from Trump. Of course, sensitive man that I am, I adapted to the Democratic charges of racism by calling it the Xi Jinping Flu.

The Russians brutally beat down the Chechen Islamists a generation ago, nor caring one bit about hearts and minds, and radical Islam is regaining its strength in the region. The pain wore off. Now it is back to business as usual for the jihad-prone.

Chinese commercial interests and American strategic and economic interests in the Panama Canal. China would not be unhappy if the canal stopped working during a U.S-Chinese crisis or war.

If the Russians truly oppose American efforts to rally opposition to China--as opposed to pretending they don't like American efforts--the Russians are complete morons.

I identify as highly amused.

Huh: "Ratings from Neilsen Media Research reported Tuesday indicated that CNN lost 67% of its total viewers since January, when Donald Trump left the White House."

Heartily endorsed: Even if you individually aren't a murderous scumball kind of communist and really believe you can make the lives of people better, communism encourages the rise of murderous communist scumballs who will kill everyone in their way to total power--even the "nice" communists.

China's military strategy: Increased Chinese emphasis on joint warfare conducted away from China's coast makes sense given increased military capabilities to fight away from the coast. And will ensuring the loyalty of the PLA harm its effectiveness as a military rather than as pillars of the CCP monopoly on power? The author notes but does not discuss new thoughts on the People's Armed Police. They have an internal security role and also are supposed to help the PLA in war. What are the new roles? Rear area security? Logistics support? Infantry for city fights? Occupation forces after conquest?

My hope is that our enemies will be convinced for four years that our apparent leadership problem is all a clever ruse designed to draw them into a trap--because America is too successful to have done this to ourselves, right?

I may have been hasty in blaming Firefox for all its crashes the last week. Every browser I have tried with Yahoo! sites has crashed or failed to launch. What's up with Yahoo? But in Firefox, other sites are freezing up and crashing, too. And my wallpaper was erased. Scans show no threats. Time to shut down the computer and see if that helps.

South Korea will be able to act against North Korean nuclear threats without American permission: "The governments of the United States and South Korea announced on 21 May that they have agreed to scrap the 'Revised Missile Guidelines' agreement that had limited the range of South Korean ballistic missiles to 800 km." Nor will North Korea be able to escape South Korean action if America is deterred from acting.

Baltic state NATO members will cooperate on rocket artillery: "The governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have agreed to tighten their defense cooperation, vowing to explore the joint acquisition of new rocket launchers amid fears of Russian military moves in their neighborhood, the countries said in a joint declaration."

The proposed sale of F-35s to the UAE is endangered by UAE ties to China. Given that Iran is the only likely enemy, I don't know why the UAE needs the stealthy F-35.

Russia says a lot of things that aren't true. So, okay: "The head of a Russian defense contractor recently said the U.S. Air Force’s unmanned X-37B spaceplane is a secret space bomber that can drop nuclear warheads from orbit. It isn’t, and it can’t."

Apparently, the UAE is building an air base on Yemen's Mayun Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Aircraft could dominate sea traffic going in and out of the Red Sea, for one thing. But the UAE isn't talking. Later, the Saudi-led coalition said it is their stuff, but no country was identified.

Not as Science! as one might hope. GIGO comes to mind. Tip to Instapundit.

Well, fingers crossed that refreshing Firefox and unintalling/reinstalling Chrome stopped the unstable browser problem that cropped up after the latest Windows update. Edge was less wobbly so I didn't kill that and reinstall, too. We'll see.

Voter fraud and corruption in Iraq. Plus Iran's downsizing of its PMF militia proxies inside Iraq from lack of money and growing hostility by Iraqis and slow government actions to rein in the PMF militias. Killing Soleimani, the Iranian terror mastermind, was very important to shaking Iran's hold inside Iraq. I fear Biden will rescue Iran's finances and send Iraq back into violent chaos.

I don't buy the idea that Russia has a growing list of nuclear super weapons. Very little works there. But they've got these super weapons? Really? And why bother when Russia has so many strategic nukes already? Or do their ICBMs work any more?

While I am fully on board escorting convoys across the Atlantic, I do not believe Russia could sustain more than a token "Battle of the Atlantic" to disrupt American and Canadian forces crossing the Atlantic to reinforce NATO in Europe. On the other hand, the Russians might have a chance to do some damage: "The Russian fleet that might threaten our line of supply is in a bit better shape today in terms of readiness (even as it shrinks in numbers and tonnage) than when it was a joke, but our ability to escort logistics vessels is kind of a joke now, too. So we are being totally sporting."

Thinking about the Polar regions to succeed there. I've often written that it is hard to survive there let alone fight there. Equipment that can survive there is part of the problem. I've long thought we need a POLARCOM.

There was no insurrection for Congress to investigate: "At least not in Washington, D.C. Now, in places like Portland and Seattle, there were and are insurrections, actual ongoing occupations of actual territory by actual criminals where the government is expressly told it’s not in charge and to stay out. And, of course, the government tolerates those insurrections. It does so because the Democrats in charge – this nonsense never happens in Florida with DeSantis in charge – perceives the actual insurrectionists as political allies, so they do nothing. Some insurrections, it appears, are more insurrectiony than others."

The European Union has frozen a investment pact with China that Xi really wanted. This seems almost too good to be true given my contempt for the anti-democratic proto-imperial EU: "At this rate, not many Western leaders are likely to phone or telegraph congratulatory messages to Beijing for the party's 100th birthday." Although tellingly the author says--without saying it--that the EU's motive for the pact was to spite Trump.

India needs to work on its Act East policy if it wants to push its forward defenses against China farther east than the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Look, ask any Bernie Sanders supporter if the Democratic Party and their media allies pulled strings in 2016 to drag Hillary Clinton's corrupt and black hole of charisma carcass across the finish line during the Democratic primaries (and for Biden in 2020, too). And then tell me that the Axis of Weasels was literally incapable of doing the same in 2020 against Trump. As I've said, the real rigging was likely four years of relentless, turn-the-dial-to-11 Orange Man Bad propaganda rather than illegal election shenanigans, but I don't rule that out. And with our sudden lack of election transparency that was engineered for 2020, I don't think we can rule it out any more than it can be proven. But hey, the Wuhan lab leak theory went from forbidden Q Anon conspiracy theory to accepted possibility. And the Hunter Biden laptop went from Russian plot to real. So who knows what might change?

Will the madness of 2020 last? I hoped it would fade after the election. It did not. And the vindictiveness of the winners seemed ominous in ways the left hadn't seemed ominous to me before. Which is why I started making memes to combat the left's dangerous influence among Democrats at some basic level. But maybe this will be peak stupid. I hope so. But I'm also prepared for another decade of this.

Not everything is poisoned by politics. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

It's bad enough that we seem to have political commissars in our military units to prevent badthink. But do we have to put our enemies' commissars in them? Tip to Instapundit.

Social media shouldn't be censoring badthink. The First Amendment, and all that. And aside from that, which should be the end of the argument, they shouldn't pretend they are only defending against "misinformation" because they are not qualified to determine that. And is nobody in the media ashamed that they promoted a lie that protected the Chinese Communist Party's role in throwing the world into chaos and killing millions? None at all? Really?

You can't trust the New York Times to provide accurate information that violates its biases. Tip to Instapundit.

Cuomo did a lot of work even before 2020 to give New York City its massive increase in crime. Via Instapundit.

We're still trying to get the desperately needed KC-46 to work. Our refueling planes were old a couple decades ago when we wanted a replacement. I couldn't understand how this could be effed up for so long. Now I know. Apparently Boeing suffered from "a management decision to change the selection criteria for senior management to deemphasize an engineering background. That meant upper management had fewer and fewer people with career experience with designing, developing and manufacturing aircraft." Who knew you couldn't engineer a complicated flying machine that refuels planes, carries passengers, and moves cargo with liberal arts and business majors calling the shots? Oh, and the toilet leaks now. A toilet that works well in other aircraft. As the Chinese seek military superiority it is very sporting of us to give them a fair shot, eh?

How violence becomes mostly peaceful protest.

Inconvenient truths in China.

Oops. Oh well. The regulating class meant well, you see. They believed they understood cause and effect. And their regulations highlighted how much they care. That's all that really matters. Tip to Instapundit.

"Some (me) are more equal than others, comrades!"

You wonder why the Chinese Communist Party hits America on BLM talking points about alleged "systemic racism" in America? Because the false accusation conceals China's sins: "China has always seen non-Chinese as lesser creatures, a designation many neighbors and adversaries do not appreciate. As the old saying goes, make a lot of enemies on the way up and you can expect others to hurt rather than help you when you are on the way down. That is what China faces now." Fortunately, even if leftist activists hate America actual immigrants come here because they know America is a welcoming society. Especially compared to other countries.

Sure, Lukashenko is alienating the West and pushing him to rely more on Russia. That's good for Putin's ambitions to reclaim Belarus. But I don't see how Lukashenko's hijacking of an airliner to kidnap a journalist has any "on the other hand" problems for Putin. Putin doesn't care that the world doesn't like what Putin does. Why would it be a problem for Putin if Lukashenko acts like Putin?

The European Union doubled down on its proto-imperial outlook. What pushed Britain to leave the EU has prompted Switzerland to stop tentative steps to enter the EU.

I mistrust any analysis talking about global economic heft that relies on PPP to compare countries rather than GDP. In my view, PPP is useful for comparing sub-categories under certain circumstances--like weighting for lower troop personnel costs when comparing military spending. And shockingly the analysis is used to promote Chinese investments in Europe. Huh.

I wonder if Israel's AI-driven fires-only campaign against Hamas and other terrorists in Gaza inflicted more key damage in 11 days than the last war of 40 days (if memory serves me--NOTE: does not, 7-week war) that included limited ground operations: "The military believes using AI helped shorten the length of the fighting, having been effective and quick in gathering targets using super-cognition."

I find it amazing that an American actor publicly groveled to China for calling Taiwan a "country." The funny thing is, Taiwan is a country in every sense except the legal one; while China is a dictatorial party living off the husk of the territory formally called mainland "China".

Wow, some people just can't wise up even after being hit with the clue bat.

Based on the university's precedent of punishing upon allegation, I think the entire racist institution should be shut down until we can figure out why it is a hotbed of hate.

Recalculating route.

Mali Coup III: This Time It's Serious? Of course, the dilemma is that punishing the coup leaders could undermine the fight against jihadis. Yet could accepting the coup make jihadis look more appealing? France threatens to pull its troops out in response. I'd say that's a bluff but America is doing the same thing in Afghanistan despite my worries it will just empower jihadis.

The Russian hackers who hit our government are at it again, having not learned the lesson of getting away with their attack. Wait. What? JDAMs, people. Think JDAMs. Or less dramatic means of death for those waging war on us. Really, start killing the hackers who target our infrastructure. We're forced to harden our infrastructure against cyber attacks when we should be hardening it to withstand a solar storm or EMP attack. But no, everything but actual infrastructure is set to get flooded with money under Biden's proposed "infrastructure" spending spree.

Seven months after the ship sailed, the Russians claim to have chased a British destroyer out of waters off of Crimea. Britain rejected the silly Russian boast. The U.S. was not so worked up over a Russian intelligence-gathering ship off of Hawaii.

The Army is learning about cyber and electromagnetic warfare from Russia's continuing operations against Ukraine in the Donbas region. Highly related.

Sadly true:


China's interest in Xinjiang goes beyond multi-generational genocide against the Uighurs: "China continues to bolster the capabilities of the People's Liberation Army Ground Force's (PLAGF's) Xinjiang Military Command, with Chinese state media revealing on 25 May that new wheeled artillery and air-defence assets have entered service with a combined arms formation in the region." Russia should pay attention. Unless the Uighurs have an air force.

"NATO has warned that Russia is continuing with a 'pattern of aggressive behavior' toward Ukraine by stationing large forces near their border and restricting navigation in the Black Sea."

Huh. What kind of screeching dog whistle is this to racists?

Heh:


I'm happy these ships are finally getting pushed into the South China Sea: "Today, there are two LCS deployed to the western Pacific – USS Tulsa (LCS-16) and USS Charleston (LCS-18) . By the end of the year there’ll be four and the end of 2022 there could be eight, the commander of U.S. Japan-based 7th Fleet said on Thursday." Not because they are great. But because if the Chinese start a war, it is likely our forward-deployed ships sailing on peacetime presence missions will be knocked out. And the LCS is the ship we can most afford to lose in the opening hours of war. On the flip side of the coin, the Chinese won't be tempted to start a war because such ships are dangled in front of them.

Oh what fresh Hell is this?! After enduring and recovering from a Windows update my computer is doing that again!

Looks like the president's "lid" on appearances for the day needs to be a little earlier (Tip to Instapundit). Seriously, what is Biden's major malfunction.

Marine squads are evolving as the Marine Corps sheds its role as a "second Army".

Good Lord. I've been hearing about those "schools" for a long time. 

It was the cleanest and most secure election in history, you conspiracy theorist.

Oh, FFS:  "American soldiers have mistakenly revealed the exact locations of US nuclear weapons in Europe by uploading details as part of revision exercises that were publicly available to view, a report claims." And it gets worse because in learning security procedures the troops "appeared to show the positions of cameras, the frequency of patrols around the vaults, secret duress words that signal when a guard is being threatened and the unique identifiers that a restricted area badge needs to have, Bellingcat said."

The Philippines is getting more vocal about China's subliminal conquest of Filipino territory: "The Philippines has demanded that China withdraw its ships and fishing vessels from the vicinity of a Philippine-occupied island in the South China Sea, where the Chinese military has asserted its sovereignty and vowed to 'unswervingly safeguard” the disputed territory.'" The Philippines needs to occupy their territory. And America can help with the logistics.

Developing War Plan Orange and OPLAN Orange. Funny, I'm reading a book about the Navy's inter-war work on a Pacific war with Japan.

The European Union is banning flights from Belarus after the air hijacking by Belarus of an Irish plane. That makes it harder for dissidents to get out of Belarus. Is that good or bad for Lukashenko?

Iran is using drones to try to kill American troops in Iraq. Naturally this article uses that as an excuse to run from Iraq rather than a reason to remember that Iran is America's enemy and that we should defeat Iran--not strengthen them with a new Iran nuclear deal that lifts sanctions. Islamists of both the Shia and Sunni variety can be forgiven for believing God is on their side, eh?

James Carville is still around? "Democratic consultant James Carville decided to write an absurd opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal titled, “Democrats Are the Anticrime Party.”

Wow, the news media is just one endless fluffing session for Biden, isn't it? Portraying him as a hard worker can't be easy. Bravo Nick Allen. Nice journalism.

Well congratulations to you race-obsessed racist haters on the woke left. We were building a post-race society that judges on the content of your character. And then you effed it up. I don't want to be defined by my race. But leftists accept no other way of categorizing. Maybe I should just self-identify as "purple" on all government forms. Hmm. Maybe everyone should. Ef the haters who can't see beneath skin tone. Via Instapundit.

When will the Chinese Communist Party just buy our media outlets instead of just renting them? "The L. A. Times regularly runs a paid insert in its Sunday Edition called China Watch which is characterized by other news agencies as being Beijing-Funded Propaganda with the latest edition of China Watch shown below." They aren't the only paper to do that. Although the Chinese got a lot of free--and enthusiastic--media work with that whole CCP denial of a lab leak theory for the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 pandemic. Perhaps purchase isn't cost effective.

Really unclear on the concept.

If you are wondering what the recruiting pool for guards for political prisoners looks like.

I'm betting swing and a miss for this plan: "President Biden on Sunday said that he plans to make human rights abuses a priority in his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva next month, CNN reports." Putin will just hurl back BLM charges against America and Biden will meekly agree.