Is Israel getting ready to attack Iran's nuclear facilities?
That might be what Biden's eagerness to restore a nuclear deal with Iran will guarantee:
The Israelis’ overriding mission was clear: to look their U.S. counterparts in the eye and gauge if their worst fears about Washington’s plans were in fact true. Was Biden really committed to a straight-up return to the nuclear deal negotiated by then-President Barack Obama in 2015? Was the administration really determined to grant the Iranian regime billions of dollars in sanctions relief without first securing fundamental changes to the nuclear deal’s major flaws—including a series of sunset clauses that start lifting constraints on Iran’s ballistic missile program in 2023 and its advanced centrifuge program in 2024, as well as its lack of an ironclad verification regime? Were the Biden officials in fact impervious to Israel’s warning that a return to the agreement would disastrously heighten the threat posed to Israel’s security?
The answers the Israelis got? Yes, yes, and yes. Based on their own intelligence about the indirect talks being held in Vienna to bring the United States and Iran back into compliance with the nuclear deal, the Israelis arrived in Washington with low expectations. These expectations were met.
The Iranians aren't shy about their intent:
"Israel could be blown up in a single operation," said the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami.
I'd really worry about an Iranian merchant ship or suicide submersible detonating a nuke in or near an Israeli port city.
I think Israel could do the job:
We look at Israel's capabilities and we can reverse engineer what Israel would do if Americans were in charge of planning the operation.And Israel has had more time to work the problem, including getting Gulf allies equally worried about a nuclear-armed Iran.
The idea that a commando raid is the height of thinking outside the box is ludicrous. With our resource-rich way of waging war, we have no idea how Israelis might truly think outside the box. We actually think that putting 400 troops on the ground in Iran isn't right inside the box of big operations. Shoot, there's a book about that operation--written in 1991. It was pretty good.
I think Israel can reach Iran. If Iran threatens to cross whatever red line Israel thinks puts Iran out of reach, they'll act.
If Israel has excess capability, destroying Kharg Island oil export facilities would be a good idea, too.
How hot will this year get? And will the Biden administration punish Israel for trying to stop Iran from getting nukes more than the administration is willing to punish Iran for seeking nukes?
Have a super sparkly day.
