The Russians are ominously exercising combat troops in and around Russian-occupied Crimea and Russian-occupied eastern Donbas. Well, Russia did buy five more years of peace in the Far East.
Does Putin need another reclaimed territory sugar rush?
Russia is once more conducting military exercises near its border with eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian territory it has occupied since 2014. This time the “training exercises” are more threatening because they involve the equivalent of six combat brigades, accompanied by additional artillery (gun and rocket) units moving to the border as well as a buildup of combat aircraft and warships in the Crimean Peninsula, the one Ukrainian province Russia was able take in 2014 and annex. Russia then sought to take two provinces in eastern Ukraine, which comprise the economically important Donbas (Don River Basin) region. Surprisingly, for the Russians, Ukrainian forces quickly responded to the 2014 Donbas seizure effort and after months of intense combat there was a stalemate, with Russian holding half the territory it sought.
America's military is concerned:
“In the past week, the U.S. military’s European Command raised its watch level from possible crisis to potential imminent crisis — the highest level — in response to the deployment of the additional Russian troops.”
And NATO is concerned:
A NATO official told Reuters that Moscow was undermining peace efforts in eastern Ukraine. “Allies shared their concerns about Russia’s recent large scale military activities in and around Ukraine. Allies are also concerned about Russian violations of the July 2020 ceasefire that led to the death of four Ukrainian soldiers last week.
Ukrainians are better armed and prepared for a war than they were in 2014. But unless Ukraine can take the war into Russian territory the collateral damage would all be in Ukraine. Would Ukraine try to liberate any territory that Russia manages to grab? Or accept peace to avoid worse?
Would Russia want to add Kharkov to their Donbas holdings or would Russia want to create a land bridge linking their Donbas holdings with their Crimea conquest.
Hopefully Ukraine has plenty of anti-tank weapons, engineer-built obstacles, and mines to throw in the path of the Russian invaders; and infantry to hold urban centers.
Plus the ability to throw missiles, aircraft strikes, and naval mines at Russia's Crimea bases to inflict pain on Russian assets.
Mostly, Ukraine really needs to inflict pain on Russia, with lots of body bags going back to Russian mothers. And extend the fighting to increase the financial costs to Russia.
Russia likely wants to get as much as they can in the west before China gets tired of muting their territorial claims against Russia's Far East in exchange for Russian appeasement of China.
Despite the 2001 treaty that settled their border dispute, is Russia's conquest of the Far East really accepted by China? The treaty only lasted for 20 years, remember. So whatever was "settled" expired. As the archived report of the issue I cited in this post states:
At some time in the future, will China try to regain the territory lost between 1858 and 1860? Such an occurrence is certainly not out of the question. The map on page 15 proclaims “The Chinese Territories Invaded and Occupied by Tsarist Russia.” Though the 2001 Treaty ostensibly settled ninetynine percent of outstanding border issues, this map remains on display in a Beijing military museum. This would hardly come as a surprise to most Russians in the Far East. They understand that many Chinese still do not accept the loss of these regions. During the author’s 2001 trip to Primorski Krai, numerous Russians told tales of visiting Chinese tourists who proclaimed that they had come to look at “their land.”
Russia only managed to get China to agree to five more years of that treaty, after all.
So the clock is ticking for Russia. Despite Russian loud claims of NATO hostility and plots, NATO did not go to war with Russia over Ukraine. That will remain true despite American support for Ukraine in the face of Russian threats:
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to Ukraine's minister of defense on the phone Thursday to express "unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine's sovereignty" and to condemn Russian aggression in the country.
But if Russia gets tied down in Ukraine, would China be as restrained in five years?
One would think that Russia would use the five years they bought with China to restore relations with NATO so that European Russia is a safe rear area for the main front against China. But how likely is that kind of sanity?
At what point does Ukraine try to regain their nuclear weapons status?
UPDATE: I'm reading things about how Ukraine may be preparing to retake Crimea. But I don't see how Ukraine breaks through the isthmus between Ukraine and Russian-occupied Crimea. And a major effort south just leaves their left flank open to a Russian drive from the Donbas region.
My view has long been that if Ukraine wants to fight it goes after the Donbas region with troops while bombarding Russia's Crimea bases to pressure Russia to agree to a ceasefire that ratifies Ukraine's liberation of some territory before more of Russia's bases in Crimea get damaged.
UPDATE: Biden spoke to Zelensky:
"The Ukrainian side is very pleased with the call and sincerely believe President Biden prioritizes restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its Western integration," a source close to Zelensky told Axios' Jonathan Swan.
And the U.S. is talking to NATO members:
“We're absolutely concerned by recent escalations of Russian aggressive and provocative actions in eastern Ukraine, including violations of the July 2020 ceasefire,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters Thursday. “Additionally, we are aware of Ukrainian military reports concerning Russian troop movements on Ukraine's borders. We are discussing our concerns about that increase in tensions and ceasefire violations and regional tensions with NATO allies.”
Please increase your pucker factor accordingly.
UPDATE: This is not comforting:
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, on Friday played down the build-up, arguing that “it should not bother anyone and it does not pose a threat to anyone.”
He insisted that the recent manoeuvres were aimed solely at securing Russia’s own borders.
Just where does Russia consider its border? Hadrian's Wall?
