Has Russia's mobilization near Ukraine been a distraction from Russia's drive to embrace Belarus more tightly?
Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to host his Belarusian counterpart on Thursday for talks on closer integration between the two ex-Soviet neighbors.
The meeting follows allegations of a failed plot to assassinate Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko, allegedly involving a blockade of the country’s capital, power cuts and cyberattacks. Belarusian and Russian security agencies arrested the alleged coup plotters in Moscow earlier this month.
Lukashenko has grown increasingly dependent on Russia's financial and political support after months of massive protests against his rule, and his visit to Moscow raised expectations that he could accept the Kremlin's push for a stronger union. He fueled such speculation over the weekend when he declared that he was preparing to make one of the most important decisions of his more than quarter-century rule.
Lukashenko has oddly accepted Russia's claims that America tried to stage a coup in Belarus:
At the most basic level, claims of a US-backed coup advance Moscow’s goal of increasing Belarusian isolation from the West and increasing its dependence on Russia. It also appears to be an attempt to foreclose any attempt by Lukashenka to return to his pre-August 2020 game of tacking between Moscow and the West in order to achieve the maximum degree of geopolitical flexibility.
The main objective here may have been to send a clear and unambiguous message to the Belarusian strongman: you are in Russia’s sphere of influence now and you have no place else to turn. Judging from his subsequent comments, Lukashenka appears to have received the message loud and clear.
In his public statements, Lukashenka has not only accepted Russia’s narrative about the arrests and the plot, but has also built on them enthusiastically.
Does this mean Lukashenko has ended his policy of trying to maneuver between the West and Russia? Has Lukashenko succumbed to the pressure from Russia to simply submit to Moscow?
Or is it possible that Lukashenko will spin this as a justification that Belarus does not need more Russian influence because Belarus is fully capable of resisting Western "plots" against Belarus?
This news comes just as Russia says the mobilization near Ukraine is over:
Russia's defense minister said Thursday that massive military exercises near the border with Ukraine had been completed, and that he had ordered troops to return to their permanent bases by May 1, according to state media.
If this troop deployment to threaten Ukraine was a red herring for Moscow's real objective of Belarus, it would have several purposes. It would disguise mobilization capable of taking over all of Belarus if Lukashenko balks at Putin's demands for tighter control of Belarus.
It would give the West an opportunity to stand up to Russia when Russia had no intention of advancing. So when Russia makes the real play against Belarus the West will be too fatigued from crisis to react as strongly.
And who knows? Russia might have gotten a bonus concession on Ukraine in the process.
This is dangerous. Belarus is the most important territory in Europe today. And Russian control has defense implications for NATO in the Baltic states and Poland.
If this is the long-feared reconquest of Belarus by Russia, the ability of Russia to threaten Ukraine while deterring NATO will also be increased by the Russian ability to threaten to advance through Poland and Lithuania to link up with Russia's Kaliningrad exclave.
UPDATE: Only the troops went back to permanent stations:
Russia’s defense minister on Thursday ordered troops back to their permanent bases following massive drills amid tensions with Ukraine, but said they should leave their weapons behind in western Russia for another exercise later this year.
Which means the units aren't really capable of threatening Belarus now.
But it also means that the Russians essentially prepositioned gear to rapidly create a threat to Ukraine. Only the troops need to be moved in to fall in on the equipment.
