The French have warned that Lebanon could collapse. Would this trigger an Israeli invasion?
I've been noting Lebanon's crisis. It is real:
France's foreign minister warned on Thursday that Lebanon is running out of time before it could see a total collapse, urging the country's fractious politicians to form a new government to save it from economic and financial disaster.
I've spent a long time wondering what would be the opportunity for Israel to launch a big ground raid into Lebanon to thoroughly gut Hezbollah (quoting an earlier 2010 post):
I assume that any war will be a multi-division push north of the Litani that will take advantage of the fact that Hezbollah, after 2006, wrongly believes it can go toe-to-toe with Israeli troops and so will fight as light infantry rather than as insurgents. For a while, Israel will be able to really pound Hizbollah ground forces as the Israelis take over rocket-launch sites and armories with troops.
Further, I'd guess the Israelis will push rapidly into the Bekaa Valley as far as Baalbek to tear up Hezbollah's rear area to slow down rearmament after the war is over. Air strikes would take place north of that, if necessary, I'd guess.
And lately I wonder how wide the northern front is.
Over the years I kept connecting dots, wondering if the time for the operation had arrived. So far, it has not taken place.
I've also worried that if Israel wants to do this type of operation it needs to avoid destabilizing the fragile Lebanese government. But if the Lebanese government collapses, Israel can't prompt that kind of damage.
And as I note in that post, with all the worry that Israel might strike Iran's nuclear facilities would an Israeli strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon be kind of a relief to the world?
UPDATE: This is good:
The Israeli Defense Ministry on Tuesday announced it has completed an upgrade of the country's Iron Dome rocket-defense system to cope with an additional array of aerial threats.
