The outnumbered Taliban lose more fighters than the government loses. Let's keep the Afghan government killing jihadis.
The government estimates that the Taliban have 30,000 paid gunmen in action plus thousands of armed civilians who are compelled (under threat of attack on families) to participate in some combat operations. The government claims they kill twice as many enemy fighters (mostly Taliban) than security forces lose each year. Taliban losses have increased more sharply (more than doubling) since 2014 than those of the security forces, which have increased nearly 50 percent. The government believes it can negotiate from a position of strength with the Taliban, who seem to think getting all foreign troops out of the country by the May 1st deadline will dramatically change their chances of defeating the Afghan government and opposition forces in general and take control of the entire country. That won’t happen because most of the population backs armed resistance to the Taliban. It’s not just the numbers, but superior equipment, weapons and training that favor the anti-Taliban forces. [emphasis added]
Of course, the Taliban basically send recruits into the field and wish them luck. Interestingly enough, more and more Taliban are foreigners. Will the recent Taliban ban on foreign recruits be enforced when there aren't enough locals who want to join the Taliban?
On the other hand, the Afghan forces rely on training. And training is an ongoing process. If Westerners walk away from the Afghan government and training ends, the balance changes for the worse. As the initial article notes, "The steady loss of skilled Afghans [who emigrate] makes it harder to operate an efficient government or effective security forces."
Why Americans would shoot ourselves in the foot by throwing away a victory that gave us a government that kills jihadis on a daily basis is beyond me.
UPDATE: Yes, this is critical to keeping the Afghan military in the fight killing jihadis:
The departure of thousands of U.S. defense contractors from Afghanistan by May 1 - set by a deal last year with the Taliban – may be “more devastating” to Afghan forces than an American troop pullout, a U.S. government watchdog warned on Wednesday.
Without American troops there, I don't think contractors would remain even if this deadline for leaving is rescinded.
I did not like the Trump plan to bug out. I suspect the Biden administration wants to bug out, yet for now being the anti-Trump is more important.
