The Arab Spring could not overcome centuries of autocratic or mullah-run governments at one Twitter-organized blow. Democracy--and its often ignored (or wrongly assumed) handmaiden rule of law--takes time.
With the exception of Tunisia, the fact that the Arab Spring countries have failed to successfully transition to a democratic system is not unusual. In fact, few countries have achieved democracy by strictly linear and incremental means. Over the past two centuries, many countries have taken significant steps towards democracy only to then de-democratize, at least temporarily. Support for democracy is a fundamental aspect of the Arab Spring – and it is still present. Despite the mostly negative experience of the last 10 years, the fifth survey of the Arab Barometer has shown that 78 per cent of Tunisians, 74 per cent of Libyans, 70 per cent of Egyptians and 51 per cent of Yemenis still believe that although democratic systems are not perfect, they are the best option.
I was not discouraged by the lack of instant success:
I have no regrets for supporting the Arab Spring. Arabs deserve better lives no less than anyone else. Claims they aren't ready for democracy follow on the claims that Asians, Latin Americans, and East Europeans aren't ready for democracy. Shoot, how many of us aren't really ready?
From the beginning, I've urged us to stay involved after the heady moments of regime downfall fade. We need to teach them what "democracy" means, with rule of law and judgment of governance by repeated elections. One election, one time, as Hamas practiced in Gaza is not evidence against "democracy." It surely is a lesson against letting despots participate in elections that will only be used to seize power. But do not confuse what Gaza experienced with democracy.
Disappointed, yes. Only Tunisia is a fragile success. Add in Iraq as the result of American efforts. But not discouraged. This takes time. Especially the rule of law part. And the popular longing for a democratic alternative to autocracy or mullah-run governments is a revolution in thought that will one day affect governance.
And really, winning the war on jihadi terror requires the victory of democracy in the Arab and wider Moslem worlds.
Work the problems. They don't get better by ignoring them.
