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Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Objective: Defeat China's Ability to Conquer Taiwan

Let's not get a case of the stupid and minimize Taiwan's need for military capabilities because of a single trendy word.

The United States objective for Taiwan's defense within our INDOPACOM strategy is:

Enable Taiwan to develop an effective asymmetric defense strategy and capabilities that will help ensure its security, freedom from coercion, resilience, and ability to engage China on its own terms.

I shudder when I see the word "asymmetric" in a Taiwan-related issue. The word is grossly distorted:

Asymmetric capabilities means not trying to match a superior enemy with force-on-force capabilities but seeking their vulnerabilities. The classic is not trying to beat post-Cold War America on a conventional battlefield but to inflict casualties on America with terror and insurgency to seek our presumed weakness of a low casualty threshold. Or to take advantage of our free press and open political system to undermine and divide America at home.

But the concept seems to have evolved into the very normal thing of combined arms. So if Taiwan doesn't try to build a surface navy to counter China but instead seeks coastal defense missiles and sea mines, that is called "asymmetric warfare." Naval mines and land-based anti-ship missiles would make sense even if Taiwan could afford to build a big-ship fleet to fight the PLAN. I think that calling that move "asymmetric warfare" makes the term meaningless.

And I noted other posts where I criticized the mis-use of asymmetric concepts.

I'd strike "asymmetric" from the objective. Certainly, asymmetric capabilities are needed because Taiwan can't match China ship for ship, plane for plane, or troop for troop. Taiwan can no longer dominate the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan must focus on attrition to increase the price China will pay to throw an army ashore on Taiwan. Which will also make sure the invasion force is smaller and more disjointed.

I'm grateful Taiwan puts on a show, but I hope it is more than that:

Taiwanese troops using tanks, mortars and small arms staged a drill Tuesday aimed at repelling an attack from China, which has increased its threats to reclaim the island and its own displays of military might.

If China gets ashore, Taiwan absolutely needs symmetrical army capabilities like those tanks to drive the PLA into the sea. I discussed that in Military Review last year

Failure to drive the PLA into the sea will allow China to dig in. Then China will prepare for round two to complete the conquest of Taiwan and the destruction of that free democracy.