Russia is a regional power in terms of GDP. But it has borders spanning two continents that it must defend.
The money for the military isn't there in Russia:
Thus, traditional annual declarations of the successful modernisation of the armed forces are only a smokescreen for the growing shortage of resources needed for their maintenance and upgrading. However, no resources will be commensurate with Russia’s capabilities and objective external threats. The solution implies the need to downsize paramilitary agencies. But that entails changing Russia’s political system and economic model.
Russia won't get rid of internal security troops that look a lot like army troops. Putin certainly won't because they make up a lot of his personal army.
So the regular army can't muster the modern forces to defend Russia's huge continent-spanning border.
That's why Russia relies on nuclear weapons and wants to build a reputation for hair-trigger nuclear use if their border is threatened.
On the bright side for Russia, the Russians at least seem to have given up on a blue water fleet that has no relation to actual Russian defense needs. Notwithstanding press releases about super carriers. But the Russians may have problems building the navy it does need.
Russia won't take the obvious step to help match finances to defense needs by ending their paranoid delusions about the imaginary threat from NATO. That step might break their deeply disturbed need for either vassals or enemies on their borders.
Financial limits cripple the ability of Russia's military to meet Russia's defense needs.
Russia continued its post-Cold War decline in 2020 and covid19 played a minor role. The space program continued to shrink with fewer satellites put into orbit. Defense production is still unable to replace older Cold War systems before those pre-19911 ships, tanks and warplanes wore out. The economy continues to be crippled by low oil prices and economic sanctions imposed for the war against Ukraine. ... At the moment Russia would rather play the role of healer and benefactor, at least until the world situation is more conducive to aggressive operations.
Belarus is saved for the moment perhaps only because Ukraine turned out to be too much to chew and swallow.
I wonder if Russia is trying to tone its actions down in order to set the stage for a pivot to facing China at long last. If so, we'll see if Putin can sell the line to Russians that Russia has always been at war with Eastasia.
