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Wednesday, December 16, 2020

The Future Fleet

The Navy continues to refuse to pick a number for its fleet size by insisting on expensive carriers that have no place in a sea control campaign in a network-centric environment.

The Navy is resisting reductions in Ford class carrier production:

The Trump administration is poised to unveil a 30-year shipbuilding blueprint calling for one less big-deck carrier but dozens more warships than previous fleet plans — a course critics say is unaffordable and would lead to massive cuts to the Air Force and Army.

Defense officials are sounding alarm bells, warning that the plan could undermine the Pentagon’s efforts to keep ahead of technological advancements by China and Russia.

“These reductions [to the Army and Air Force] are completely unsustainable for any service, and will result in a hollow force if they remain,” said one official who has not been authorized to discuss the plan.

I've said that the Navy needs to pick a number if it wants a bigger fleet; and that in an age of networked surveillance and large numbers of good anti-ship missiles that big deck carriers have little role in fighting for sea control.

Carriers can be useful once other assets have established sea dominance by cutting down the enemy survivors and for projecting air power ashore from the sea. But they should not be the primary weapon system risked to achieve sea control, other than providing air defense for the tips of the spear sinking enemy ships and subs.

Remember that there is a sharp distinction between sea control and power projection.

I'm deeply concerned about the cuts to the Air Force and Army to do this. And just one fewer carrier over 30 years is not enough to shift the Navy away from carriers.* Perhaps the Air Force and Army can carve out more needed funding with a bigger carrier cut.

*I don't understand at all how that small cut of one carrier would be responsible for having fewer than 7 big carriers by the 2050s, unless a gap in carrier construction is tantamount to stopping the class by creating a gap that shipbuilders won't cover by just remaining ready for future funding.