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Monday, November 16, 2020

Stalking Erdogan?

Russia will be allowed to have up to four warships in a Sudan port facility. Should Turkey under Erdogan worry or should America worry?

Huh:

Russia plans to build a naval base in Sudan, according to a bilateral draft agreement between the two nations.

The agreement would allow Russia to establish a naval logistics base in Sudan for the repair and supply of warships as well as provide rest to sailors, according to the document published on November 11 on a Russian government website after Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved it.

I have not been impressed with Putin's efforts to push Russian influence south into the Mediterranean Sea and the Middle East

Nor have I been impressed with Russia's power plays generally that simply relied on a post-Cold War weakened West unwilling to confront Putin.

If it comes to war with NATO or America, Russia's bases south of the Turkish Straits will be cut off by air and naval power if not by the Turks. And then there's the Suez Canal that is controlled by American ally Egypt. The Russian outposts isolated out there will lead a short but exciting life against NATO power.

And in peacetime, Russian influence and power is dwarfed by America's. 

Perhaps Russia is really competing with their long-time enemy Turkey by competing in the former Ottoman realms that Turkey is playing in. And that includes Libya now, with bonus competition in the former Soviet Caucasus region. 

Turkey certainly seems like they see Russia as an enemy.

Of course, the limits on wartime Russian freedoms applies to Turkey even more. But perhaps the Russians just aim for peacetime competition.

That might be within Russian capabilities. Assuming China doesn't cause it all to come crashing down around Moscow.

It's interesting. Russia is a great power masquerading as a budding--or faltering--super power because of its vast territorial size and supposed vast nuclear arsenal. Do loud Russian noises against a non-threatening NATO disguise their appeasement of China and the fact that in the west Russia is really more concerned with competing with Turkey?