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Tuesday, November 24, 2020

Could Russians Just Take a Deep Breath and Go to Their Happy Place?

Why is Russia's mental health problem our problem?

I don't doubt that the Russians worry about strategic depth in the west:

Strategic depth is vital in the very long term, and it’s importance is burned into Russia’s memory. But it has minimal significance now. The United States and NATO have no interest in invading Russia. While Russia must assume the worst, its immediate problem remains its economy and reliance on energy exports as a prime revenue source, without any control over pricing.

Westerners shouldn't accommodate Russia too much on this because the Russian worry has no natural end state.

But Russia is creating a self-fulfilling prophecy by their bizarre paranoid behavior. The Russians should worry about their strategic breadth:

Lowering the threshold for Russian use of nuclear weapons is an admission of conventional military weakness. For all the unjustified hype about Russian "hybrid warfare" Russia has weak conventional military options against any but the weakest and closest opponents.

And the Russians are nuts to want to defend their territorial integrity with a policy that could just lead to nuclear strikes on Russia itself and escalate to their total destruction. The reality is that the only way this comes up against NATO is if Russia invades a NATO country and NATO counterattacks despite Russia claiming that their new conquest is suddenly part of Holy Mother Russia and a red line for nuclear weapons use.

That's rational?

Russia has too long of a border with too few troops to defend it. Worrying about strategic depth in the west is just nuts.

Or do the Russians take real comfort from the vast distance from China to Moscow?