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Thursday, September 10, 2020

Proof of Life

To work with NATO--or even join the alliance--Sweden needs to demonstrate that the relationship doesn't consist solely of NATO riding to Sweden's rescue.

Sweden exercised its total defense concept for territorial defense this year:

The Swedish Total Defence concept originates from the 1940s. As Colonel Mikael Johnsson, military co-chair of the exercise planning group, explained at a RUSI event dedicated to Total Defence 2020, it is rooted in the idea that all elements of society have a duty to prepare to support the armed forces at times of crisis. ...

The Swedish approach to resilience was born out of its need to develop a defence doctrine to counter a powerful aggressive neighbour without the need to depend on military allies.

This hasn't been done in decades but Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call. With a small post-Cold War military, Sweden sees its civilian population as a key enabler for their military, as it has since Nazi Germany worried about Sweden's iron ore exports to Germany.

Russian occupation seems far-fetched, so I'm not sure what value this is when the real fight will be for Gotland, the Baltic Sea, and the arc from Kaliningrad on the other shore of the Baltic to Finland.

In my view, demonstrating territorial defense capabilities despite a small military is necessary to make integration with NATO forces--whether officially or informally--possible. NATO wants help against Russia in the region, and if Sweden is a defense consumer in such a relationship NATO has little incentive to pursue ties that divert NATO forces to the defense of Sweden.

And if total defense of the homeland is necessary, isn't Sweden's large and unassimilated Moslem minority a new weakness in that concept given the problem of persistent enemy disinformation? That will be a touchy subject in Sweden.