India has bolstered air defenses on their border amidst a mutual show of force:
India deployed surface-to-air missiles to its border with China in the Himalayan Mountains after a clash with Chinese troops left 20 Indian soldiers dead.
The weekend deployment to Ladakh, in Kashmir state, was comprised of Indian-made Akash, Israeli-made Spyder and Soviet-era Pechora and OSA-AK missiles.
India and China have increased troop presence and the number of fighter planes, helicopters, tanks and heavy artillery in the region since a June 15 incident between Indian and Chinese troops in the Galwan Valley.
And in general, things are increasing pucker factors there:
The recent developments in Ladakh on the disputed border between India and China were shocking and tragic. The clash in Galwan Valley last week has opened up a deep fissure in India–China ties, spawning tensions that could even escalate into an all-out-war. The latest reports suggest the Indian armed forces have begun a rapid mobilisation and the Chinese military has been shoring up its positions, even as political efforts are on to defuse the crisis.
With a spiral of escalation building, a conflict so far limited to the Line of Actual Control with China could see other theatres open up, including one in the Indian Ocean. Unlike on the land border, where China has a relative advantage of terrain, military infrastructure and troop strength, India is better placed at sea. In the Eastern Indian Ocean through which most of China’s cargo and energy shipments pass, the Indian Navy is the dominant force.
China surely has the edge on land. But I think there are limits to how decisive any land action can be given the terrain.
Amazingly, India still hasn't corrected their dangerous deficiency in air power.
So to compete with an escalation on land by China in the north, India would have to broaden the conflict to a sea war to cut off China's line of supply across the Indian Ocean [Link added as an UPDATE] and perhaps attack China's base at Djibouti. China's logistics to operate in the Indian Ocean would be severely tested if China sent their fleet there.
India would have to be careful deploying their ships in the northern Bay of Bengal (or further south considering my post is over a decade old), of course.
India would need to succeed enough at sea to use their distant blockade on China to pressure China to give up any territorial gains on the contested border. Which would be interesting to take notes on to measure how much a blockade would actually hurt China and how quickly it would hurt.
India would need to keep Pakistan and Myanmar (Burma) out of the war.
But China would have to worry about Thailand, Indonesia, or Singapore helping India by interfering with a Chinese line of supply from the Indian Ocean back to China.
And I think that any country with island claims in the South China Sea would need to take advantage of the war to garrison and fortify their claims in that sea mostly claimed by China.
Let's hope India can deter China and keep Peking from making slow gains with repeated incursions.
UPDATE: More on China's pressure on India's land border; and at sea potential allies of India are increasingly worried about China.
UPDATE: Modi visits the troops:
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made an unannounced visit Friday to a military base in a remote region bordering China where troops from the two countries have been facing off for nearly two months.
He doesn't seem in the mood to back down.
UPDATE: A discussion of the crisis and military and economic limits on Indian action. India needs to decouple from China's economy, too.
In the short term, India may need to deescalate and, when Chinese alertness has declined, execute a similar seizure of territory elsewhere on the border and do what China has done to India in this crisis--dare China to escalate.
