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Friday, July 03, 2020

The Great Game

The very odd Russian bounty story from Afghanistan could be true:

This story does not fit together easily. If it is true, it places the U.S. in an even more hostile position than before and massively increases pressure on allies to curtail relations with Russia. It won’t be the politicians but the public that will drive them. Russian leaders knew how dangerous this could be. So it either took shape at echelons below the powers that be, or it didn’t happen the way the media is telling it. Or the senior Russian leadership wants a confrontation. And then there is the question of what the intelligence community did in the months before learning of this. It has authorization on this level to act without presidential authorization.

But if it’s true, a very Cold War follows.

I would put nothing past the Russians. They're that stupid. At this point I think the Fuck-Up Fairy lives in Russia full time.

But in my view with or without the bounty news being true we know the Russians are a-holes and we know we need to battle them (their invasion of Georgia in 2008 didn't prevent a "reset" but after Ukraine in 2014--and for Democrats, 2016--it is hard to deny the threat) even as we reserve our focus for the long-term threat of China and as we seek to keep jihadis from reviving to be a threat to our homeland.

And as long as we're speculating, maybe China leaked the information in an effort to keep Russia locked into their vassal status to their Chinese masters. It makes sense for Russia to flip to the West to hold off Chinese claims on Russian territory in the Far East seized by Russia in the 19th century.

But if a very Cold War with Russia begins, Russia may have to pay any price China demands to continue the status quo in the Far East. Russia has pretended NATO and America are threats so long that the Russians may have made it true.

Brilliant. Really, bravo Putin.

#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings