Unless there is an accident or some lower level officer opens fire without authorization from higher commands, I don't really think we are closer to war with China over the South China Sea than we think:
Fueled by China's increasingly emotional ambition, tensions in the South China Sea are rising quickly. The result is a situation in which a U.S.-China conflict is considerably more likely than is commonly assumed.
I mean, unless you think there is zero chance. If China is patient they'll wait (oh, about that).
But I still wonder if our carriers could operate close enough to the east coast of Taiwan for the mountains to screw up PLA missile targeting and enable American air strikes across Taiwan into the South China Sea:
To aid the defense of our forward deployed ships, we could airlift air defense systems into eastern Taiwan to help bolster fleet defenses by pushing our anti-aircraft missile envelop further west. Chinese satellites might be able to spot our ships, but the Taiwanese mountains would surely provide a shield against targeting our ships with enough accuracy to shoot at them with conventional anti-ship missiles unless the planes fly over the mountains. Indeed, even the DF-21 using satellite targeting could face additional obstacles if we put ABM systems ashore in eastern Taiwan to bolster ship-based Aegis anti-missile systems.
If we can operate our carriers in a forward secure bastion with ship- and land-based air defenses and with the Taiwanese navy and American subs guarding the northern and southern flanks, our carriers would be within easy range to strike Chinese fleet and transport elements in the Taiwan Strait and provide air support against any Chinese ground units that make it ashore.
I honestly don't know if China's anti-ship missiles would be thrown off by land close by. Even if they aren't, shore-based missile defenses would add to the carrier protection.
Although nine years of progress has made the PLAN more formidable than I judged then.
Still, it is worthy of thought by our Navy, no?
UPDATE: Our air defense missiles could handle that cluttered environment, apparently:
The [SM-6] missile's active seeker can detect a land-based cruise missile amid ground clutter, even from behind a mountain.
That's good for American ships operating close to Taiwan. But what about Chinese anti-ship missiles seeking the ships?
