When U.S. missiles killed Iran’s most important general and its most important militia leader in early January as they were visiting Baghdad, it looked like American forces would be kicked out of Iraq. Iraq’s parliament convened just hours after the strike and approved a symbolic resolution to expel the U.S.
More than four months later, not only are U.S. forces still there, but it’s clear that the killings have created space for a new Iraqi government to assert some independence from its powerful neighbor. The signs of this new approach have been building over recent months, and the ascendance last week of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi to the post of transitional prime minister is the latest and most profound.
This article too sees hope for Iraq:
Kadhimi’s priorities, also approved by the parliament, include dramatic and urgent economic reforms; implementation of a new electoral law; settling outstanding issues with the Kurdistan Regional Government (Dana Taib Menmy has the story); and “restricting weapons to state and military institutions,” meaning that all armed groups or Popular Mobilization Units must fall under authority of the state.
Let me start by saying I rejected the notion that Iraq was about to kick America out after we killed the Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Soleimani:
Will Iraq actually be stupid enough to eject American troops (and if we go, the Coalition leaves, too)? I doubt it.
I did not rule it out. I thought it was unlikely. Instead of ejecting America from Iraq, it seems like Iraq is joining Iraq War 3.0 against Iran, by fighting Iranian influence and corruption.
Later I called this Phase IX of the Iraq War which we are working with Iraq to define:
This [Strategic Dialogue between America and Iraq] sounds like an effort to figure out how to fight Phase IX of the Iraq War in the face of Iranian pressure on Iraq (and against American forces supporting Iraq).
The more Iraq works with America, the more the effort can be non-military, I think, because Iranian assets inside Iraq will be less able to attack American and Coalition forces as Iraqi security elements arrest them. I'd much rather have Phase IX be one focused on rule of law. Outlaw the Iranian-controlled militias, arrest the pro-Iran Iraqis, expel the Iranian agents, reduce corruption that Iran exploits and that rightly inspires popular anger at the government's ineffectiveness in general.
I hope that the strategic dialogue that America and Iraq are beginning will be for the purpose of winning this phase of the war rather than for the purpose of America leaving Iraq and risking a 2014 disaster again, whether with a revived ISIL or an Iranian-led coup.
Let's win this phase and not risk losing the Iraq War after three decades of opposing, overthrowing, and helping Iraq recover from the Saddam Hussein dictatorship.
