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Tuesday, April 14, 2020

Erdogan Pretends He Has an Empire

Turkey shoots itself in three of its feet by trying to rebuild influence in its former empire and alienating allies:

This problem gets worse, especially for the Islamic government Turkey has had for the last two decades. This government became allies with Russia and Iran, two traditional enemies. To no one’s surprise, these alliances did not work out. In order to please these new friends, Turkey risked being expelled from NATO. Worst of all, expulsion from NATO would mean the West would regard Turkey as just another poorly managed, Islamic terrorists-tolerating and unreliable Middle Eastern nation. One thing most Turks can agree on is NOT wanting to turn away from the West. The policy of being closer to Arab nations and tolerant of some Islamic terrorist or radical groups has also lost any popularity it once held.

Turkey used to have close relations with Israel, too, until Erdogan ended that.

In addition to fighting a war inside Syria (with 10,000 Turkish troops and a lot more local allies) against Assad, Iran, and Russia (so much for Erdogan's brief fling with Putin, and to a lesser extent with the Shia mullahs), Turkey is fighting a "war" with fellow NATO member Greece by pushing a human wave of refugees toward Greece, which involves some low-level--so far--armed elbow throwing.

Turkey is trying the "lovely little continent you got there, it would be a terrible thing if something bad happened to it" ploy to get European money and support for their Syria war. The EU has kind of abandoned Greece after promising support for dealing with refugees coming through Turkey.

And Turkey decided to get involved in the Libyan civil war. Turkey has sent about 500 Turkish troops and 4,500 Syrian mercenaries there.

Turkey has a problem with the Syrian multi-war south of them. But I fail to see how Erdogan is solving the problem rather than just adding to Turkey's woes by trying to establish a virtual Ottoman Empire to the south and attempting a virtual march on Vienna to the northwest, which has alienated actual allies.

We need to ride this Erdogan era out and prepare for the day when Turkey can be an ally again.