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Thursday, March 12, 2020

Strategic Neglect?

Russia's poor railroads actually help deter Chinese invasion or economic dominance.

Russia's highways are poor and their rivers not as suitable for transportation, so Russia relies on  railroads for internal communications. But they are in such poor condition that China thinks it cannot rely on Russia as a land route in their trade infrastructure Belt and Road Initiative (the New Silk Road):

Given Russia’s lack of a developed highway system (see EDM, October 6, 2015) and its increasing difficulties with the use of rivers for transport (Ritmeurasia.org, October 22, 2019), Moscow not only relies more heavily on the country’s long-haul railway network but counts on it to allow Russia to play a key role in trade between China and Europe. However, because of Moscow’s failure to invest in the maintenance and development of that network, Beijing is increasingly skeptical that Russia can be such a land route. Consequently, China is looking to send its goods either by sea or by routes that bypass the Russian Federation entirely. So what might seem to be a domestic problem is rapidly becoming an international one for Moscow.

Maybe it's just me thinking this, but for Russia in relation to Chinese ambitions, that railroad condition may be a feature rather than a bug:

Now consider the kind of interests China gains by putting trillions of dollars into this OBOR project.

The northern route goes through Russia. In particular it goes through Russian territory that Russia took from China in the 19th century.

The middle route goes through ex-Soviet republics that Russia still wants to dominate. ...

Chinese national interests will follow trade (the flag follows trade). Russia will have the biggest problem from this natural sequence.

Invaders will need Russia's railroads to supply the logistics of invasion. There's a reason Russia uses a different railroad width than Europe to the west of them. It slows down invaders who have to adjust the rails in the wake of an advance.

Heck, that's why India traditionally left their northeast with such poor infrastructure with an eye to hobbling a Chinese invasion. India started to correct that to support their own military some time ago. But it is still "appalling."

Although ideally for Russian defense needs the Trans-Siberian stretch should be in good shape to allow rapid Russian reinforcement (air reinforcement has limits) with only the lines going into China falling apart.

Are the Russians fools? Or just worried?