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Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Red Storm Writhing

I know I've used that title before, but the story is the same. Russia's fleet is becoming a coast guard with some submarines largely useful for a sea-based nuclear deterrent and protection for that nuclear deterrent.

From Strategypage:

For over a decade now Russia has been seeking to keep as most of its larger (over 5,000 tons) warships in service. There are only 17 of these ships still in service compared to 72 when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. New construction of these larger ships halted in 1991 and several of these ships still under construction then were eventually completed later in the 1990s. But after that nothing. Russia can no longer afford to build these large ships. But such behemoths are still needed more for psychological than military reasons.

The collapse of the Soviet Union led to the second largest fleet in the world rapidly decaying in less than a decade. Russia lost over 80 percent of its naval power during the 1990s. It was still the second largest fleet in the world for another twenty years but by 2016 it became clear that China had replaced Russia as the second largest fleet in terms of numbers.

If European navies hadn't declined even more, Russia wouldn't have such influence in local waters. But go farther out to sea and Russia's power is minimal:

At sea it’s a different story. Russian naval power is only a major force in the Baltic and Black Seas plus off its northern coast where most of its major naval bases are. On the high seas the Americans and Chinese are the most frequently seen naval presence.

Russia is still spending a lot of money on keeping a dozen or so of its larger surface warships in service so it can at least have these ships show up in the Atlantic and Mediterranean often enough to remind the world that Russia still has a fleet. Beyond those few large ship the Russian navy is building smaller (often 1,000 tons or less)

To maintain this illusion Russia continues refurbishing these older ships to keep then operational and presentable, for another decade or so. The largest “presentation” ships are the one remaining aircraft carrier, two nuclear powered battle cruisers and three 11,400 ton Slava class cruisers.

This is why I yawn--but hope they really mean it--when I hear stories about the latest Russian plans for aircraft carriers. Putin should just get a red sports car and save Russia a lot of money.

There is more about other powers as well.