The much weaker Russia conceals their effective appeasement of China, as I've argued:
Russian power collapsed in 1991, leaving their Far East vulnerable to China whose power soon began to rise even as Russia's power continued to erode.
Was it logical for Russia to openly treat China as a threat and cozy up to the West that was disarming and never going to help Russia defend the Amur River line?
Not really, when you think about it. Yes, in the end, Russia will have to recognize that China is a threat and not NATO. But we're far from whenever "the end" is and until then Russia can't afford to anger China.
So Russia sells weapons designed to point China's modernizing military out to see against America, Taiwan, and Japan rather than against Russia.
This isn't just clever politics. This is a form of appeasement.
Which, as it was before World War II, a reasonable reaction to a stronger power that has gotten a bad name from World War II as a means to delude yourself into thinking you've stopped an aggressor with pieces of paper.
As I've written, appeasement properly done can make sense if it allows you to avoid war with a stronger power and then use that time to build up your strength to reverse that imbalance.
Given that, are China and Russia really getting closer in a "burgeoning alliance?"
Many Russia watchers maintain that Moscow and Beijing have not formed and will not form an alliance. But in October 2019, Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed an alliance, and many observers believe an actual treaty might be signed in 2020.1 In April 2018, Brian Carlson wrote in an article for the Center for Strategic Studies: “The growing strength of the China-Russia relationship has belied the expectations of many allies.”2 Indeed, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in 2019 told the Assembly of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (SVOP), “Our partnership with Beijing is not only an example of mutually beneficial and comprehensive relations. A Russian and Chinese partnership also has a sobering effect on those who promote non-legal methods of resolving international problems”—meaning, obviously, the United States.
I can understand if Russia wants to pretend to be an ally because they aren't ready to stand up to China yet to defend their Far East with conventional defenses that don't require the early use of nukes to stop a Chinese invasion.
And if pretending to be an ally of China gets China into a war with America? Well, two birds with one stone, and all that.
But I just don't see what's in it for China to ally with a weak Russia that can't help China much against other targets that China might go after (other than Japan, which guarantees Russia will be at war with America, too, from Asia to Europe), isn't much of a potential threat to China short of Russia using nuclear weapons, and which might only drag China into a conflict with NATO. Does China really want to take down America--at a high price--for Russia?
Isn't it better for China to just have a non-aggression pact with Russia to keep China's north quiet while it confronts and pushes--short of war--America and our allies at sea to the east and southeast, and India to the southwest?
What is happening between Russia and China?
