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Saturday, February 01, 2020

Who is Tired of War?

Talks between Russia and Ukraine led to a ceasefire line agreement. But does it mean Russia is giving up or that Ukraine is giving up?

That's new:

Ukraine and Russia agreed to move back more of their forces from the current front line in eastern Ukraine (D0nbas). In early December there was an agreement to exchange prisoners and continue discussing measures to reduce the violence, most of it instigated by Russian-backed Donbas separatists. Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany have agreed to meet in Germany during April to continue negotiations to end the Donbas stalemate and resolve the problems there.

Apparently Russia has lost its appetite for further confrontation in Ukraine. There have always been some Russian leaders who backed leaving Donbas, and maybe even Crimea, to get the sanctions lifted. Ukraine wants all its territory back. That is a hard sell for Russian leaders, who spent a lot of money seizing and later subsidizing Crimea and Donbas, in addition to the even larger economic costs of the sanctions.

But what does it mean? Does it really mean Russia is getting out of Ukraine? Or even just the eastern Donbas?

Or does it mean Ukraine is giving up trying to retake the Donbas? Ukraine has been conducting a nearly subliminal counter-offensive for some time now.

Will Russia try to exit Donbas without giving up Crimea? Would Ukraine admit the loss of Crimea to get back the eastern Donbas?

Or is Ukraine content to reduce the casualty rate with this agreement while refusing to cut a deal with Russia that would end Western sanctions and let Russia come in from the cold?