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Thursday, February 20, 2020

The Frenemy of My Frenemy

Greeks bearing gifts of friendship is a good thing:

The Eastern Mediterranean, and particularly Greece, were pivotal in America’s decisions to defend freedom and contain communism after World War II. The region largely receded from view once the Cold War ended, however, and Washington declared a peace dividend.

Now geopolitics and geology are bringing security competition back to this strategic crossroads, with Greece at the nexus.

The primary driver has been Turkey’s transformation under its president, Recep Erdogan. ...

These major developments help explain Greece’s aspirations to replace Turkey as a regional diplomatic and economic hub and a key NATO bulwark. Indeed, Athens is doing exactly what American policymakers ask of allies, namely taking on larger duties of collective defense. Greece already spends a greater share of GDP on defense than any NATO member save the United States.

This reflects how, after decades of cool relations at best, there is a growing national consensus that partnership with the United States should form the bedrock of Greek security.

It is indeed a bit odd to see this given Greece's past dabbling in anti-Americanism. Although Greece's military spending is distorted by how they count military spending, if my memory is correct. I don't think Greece's military is anywhere nearly as ready as that GDP share to "defense" indicates.

But the hostility of Turkey to America is pushing Greece and America together, as I've noted:

The article says Greece is getting good at geopolitics. I'd say it is just a case of deciding that if their hated enemy Turkey hates NATO and America, perhaps Greece has been hasty in not liking NATO and America. Enemy of my enemy, and all that.

Either way, Greece's attitude is helpful to America and NATO.

I've been saying we need alternatives to Turkey given Erdogan's increasingly hostile attitude toward NATO. If Turkey is moving away from NATO, Greece no doubt feels more need to engage with America and NATO to deter their enduring foe.

And I've been worried about China's inroads into Greece.

So more cooperation with Greece addresses two American concerns.

The article also notes Cyprus base options as I've suggested along with Greek options.

The 21st Century Eastern Question is evolving in unexpected ways. Let's take advantage of our good options as long as Turkey wishes to be a problem child ally.