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Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Reality, Attrition, and History Return to the Navy

To get numbers the Navy will abandon the capital ship-heavy fleet that has defined the post-Cold War Navy:

Despite expected cuts to shipbuilding programs in the fiscal year 2021 budget request, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper is committed to a bigger, but much lighter, naval force, he said in an exclusive interview with Defense News.

In the wake of reports that the Navy may cut shipbuilding in its upcoming budget request, Esper said he is “fully committed” to building a fleet of 355 ships or larger. But to get there, the Navy is going to have to fundamentally reshape itself around smaller ships that can be more quickly bought than the large, exquisite designs the service now relies on — a shift that could have big implications for both the industrial base and the carrier force.

Such a plan would mark a departure from the current Navy force structure assessment that calls for twice the number of larger ships over small surface combatants: 104 large, 52 small.

I've noted the shift in the composition of the fleet to larger warships at the expense of smaller, less capable, and cheaper ships.

Back before we thought we'd have to fight for control of the seas I thought I was stating the obvious that the Navy had to pick the number of ships it wants and build the type of ships it can afford under its budget:

The United States Navy is shrinking and our missions aren't.

So we have to do something. This article lays out the somethings options.

I have another idea. Set a number of platforms that we need to perform the missions we need to protect ourselves. Then build ships to reach that number.

Oh, they don't all have to be Ford super carriers or high end Aegis cruisers/destroyers. We really can build some less capable and cheaper ships for many missions. Remember, our fleet is composed primarily of high end ships, unlike the past when we had a core of capable ships and then cheaper, less capable, and more numerous escorts. In a version of grade inflation, our destroyers are no longer the cheap tin cans of World War II but high end ships that are amongst our most capable.

Yet the high end still needs to exist. The Navy extended production of Burke-class ships as an interim measure but it is an old if good design. The Navy will have another go at a replacement:

The U.S. Navy in 2021 is planning to kick off a five-year research, testing and design effort for its next generation of large surface combatant, according to Navy budget documents released Monday.

The large surface combatant program is looking install older, proven systems “into a new hull design that incorporates platform flexibility and growth capabilities to meet projected future Fleet system requirements,” according to Navy fiscal year 2021 budget documents.

Let's hope that with the technology developed for the truncated-at-three-ships Zumwalt lying around that the new ship design will be under budget under the accounting rules.

It has taken a while for that reality and the history behind it to reach actual shipbuilding plans.

Perhaps the prospect of taking losses to control the seas rather than just projecting power abroad was the needed hit with the clue bat.