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Thursday, February 27, 2020

Covid19 Update

The PLA is sitting out the Wuhan Flu coronavirus (officially "covid19" now). Strategypage looks at that and an overview of the virus:

Treatments have now been developed to handle those infected and keep down the death rate everywhere but Hubei. The death rate is now about one percent worldwide because the genetic makeup of East Asians makes them more susceptible to dying from covid19. So the death rate in China is still over two percent. Actually the situation is worse than that. Outside of Hubei province the death rate is less than one percent. The death rate is much higher (nearly three percent) in Hubei. No one can officially explain that. Hubei residents believe the high death rate is the result of the government underreporting the number of cases, but not being able to fake data on how many died.

The military is considered too valuable to risk in epidemic response.

I wonder why East Asians are more vulnerable? I assume this is something that holds true with other viruses regarding other races and ethnicities.

Interestingly enough, the highly publicized rapid construction by the PLA of a hospital (with another that followed) had no effect because the PLA realized it could not staff either and the civilian health facilities were already busy, considering the infection of health workers.

And the economic effects depend on how quickly this virus is in the rear view mirror.

To be clear, I do not wish the coronavirus on anyone--not even China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran. Commenting on potential effects is just accepting what is and speculating on repercussions. People will die and celebrating their problems is only a cutout away from supporting biological warfare that does the same thing, isn't it?

And even if I was cruel enough to wish that on ordinary people living under hostile rulers, it would be unwise since we want this contained and defeated before it can take off at home, no? Morality and national interest align on this issue.

Fingers crossed. For everyone.

UPDATE: The word from Wuhan.

UPDATE: Actual real information from the CDC.

UPDATE: Now this State Department communication is what I'm talking about when I say morality and national interest coincide:

The United States stands with the people of Iran during the public health crisis caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The U.S. Government is prepared to assist the Iranian people in their response efforts. This offer of support to the Iranian people, which has been formally conveyed to Iran through the Government of Switzerland, underscores our ongoing commitment to address health crises and prevent the spread of infectious diseases.

The United States calls on Iran to cooperate fully and transparently with international aid and health organizations. We will continue to work closely with countries in the region to help address unmet needs in response to the virus.

Persons interested in providing support to the Iranian people should note that certain donations to Iran intended to relieve human suffering, including the donation of medicine, are exempt from U.S. sanctions. In addition, the United States maintains broad exceptions and authorizations to its sanctions for the commercial export of food, medicine, medical devices, and agricultural products to Iran. In support of those exceptions and authorizations, the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Government of Switzerland recently announced the Swiss Humanitarian Trade Arrangement (SHTA). For more information about the SHTA, see https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm919.

Supporting the Iranian people is and will remain among our top priorities.

This is a nice gesture. And even better, it is smart.

UPDATE: Iran rejected the offer. Good luck with that.