When Allah Says You Should Rule, You Kill to Rule

Last week in the data dump I wondered about what is going on in Iran. Unrest has been a feature of the mullah regime, so I don't get my hopes up.

This article wonders how fragile Iran is these days. But this article notes that protests have been around for decades yet the regime crushes them and endures.

Sometimes things continue as is. Sometimes they change. I have no idea what is up in Iran.

I do know that protesters inspired by the admission that Iran shot down the Ukrainian airliner--small in number, admittedly--were out on Monday for a third day condemning the mullah rulers. Is that significant?

This article says that Iran accidentally shooting down the Ukrainian airliner with all aboard killed could have "deeper repercussions" inside Iran (via Instapundit), widening divisions in society.

I have little hopes that the upcoming parliamentary elections noted in that article could be significant. That would require that the pre-screened (by the mullahs) candidates side with the people upset with the regime and that the regime allows the (for the sake of argument) now-opposition legislators to do anything that shakes the status quo.

Unless the mullahs have lost their will to rule--and the recent large-scale shooting of protesters under cover of an Internet shutdown indicates otherwise--the mullahs and their fanatical supporters are unlikely to allow any of that.

Remember that the regime is backed by the Revolutionary Guards and their Basij paramilitary reserves, and so have substantial manpower and firepower to back them up. Would the police and regular armed forces stand up to that kind of raw power?

Of course, hope for that kind of resistance is one reason I say we should refrain from targeting regular Iranian military units unless intelligence shows the unit is led by a fanatical regime supporter. We don't want to reduce the ability of the Iranian military to resist the mullahs should that resistance take place.

UPDATE: Related discussion: "I heard [Soleimani’s statement] broadcast on my Los Angeles radio station only weeks ago, that he was ready to kill millions more of his own countrymen in order to protect the regime."