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Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Survival of the Fittest

Australia doesn't appreciate the value of northern Australia?

It has been painfully obvious for years that our major ally, the U.S., major regional partner, Japan, and major market, China, all see more strategic value in northern Australia than successive federal governments and much of our defence establishment. ...

In Darwin, the strategic need will be to invest in bigger and more capable defence basing. We should work with the U.S. to grow its Marine Corps presence.

A larger defence presence in the north would position Darwin as a security hub, lending confidence in the region and counteracting China’s attempts to dominate and demoralise the neighbourhood.

I thought Australia understood the value given that they let America use facilities in Darwin for our Marines.

Australia is at a pivot point between the Pacific and Indian Oceans in what is a single theater in regard to containing China (as the new name of our command, INDOPACOM, indicates clearly):

Australia is a pivot point between the Pacific and Indian Oceans, providing access to the coastal regions of much of Asia. America and Australia will jointly man this pivot point. We will be able to project power from this central position to a region from the Arabian Sea to the South China Sea. Australia gains greater confidence of American support, in turn.

I will disagree with the author's statement that 2,500 American Marines rotating through Darwin are no threat to China. In the South China Sea, a few will do:

You might think that the attention to the deployment is a little much given that China has an army of 18 corps-sized land commands plus extras, and includes three full divisions of amphibious trained army units and 10,000 of their own marines. The Marines are a drop in the bucket, aren't they?

They would be if they planned to land at Dagu and march on Peking.

But in the context of the South China Sea where very small islands could be the battlefields, a small and well trained amphibious force capable of projecting platoons, companies, or the entire battalion to seize control of those small islands will have big effects.

Australia should see the strategic value of their northern coast and not pretend it is the dark side of the moon, strategically--which China went to, by the way.

UPDATE: Speaking of the far side of the moon, China released photographs from one of their landers over there.

Don't say I haven't warned you:



What are the limits of China's line-drawing ambitions?