We'll see what this means:
The United States military is officially in Iraq at the country's invitation. If that invitation is withdrawn American forces would seemingly withdraw with along with it. Such a scenario inched little closer to reality Sunday when members of Iraq's parliament voted to compel the government — which would then make the final decision — to expel the United States from the country Sunday following Washington's airstrike that killed Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Iraq this week.
It was just a "nonbinding" vote and the legislation is just a draft bill that has no details like deadlines for leaving.
Further, while the vote for the bill was 170-0 in favor, the balance of the 328-member parliament did not vote and/or even attend the session with the vote. They prefer to keep American forces inside Iraq.
And even more interesting, the bill only refers to one agreement that keeps American forces in Iraq to fight ISIL while leaving the other more general SFA in place.
I suspect it is just a show for Iran and Iran's followers in Iraq. And for American reporters not as careful as The Week's people who actually explained the issue in enough detail to grasp the--dare I say it--nuance.
If Iraq ejects our forces from their country because we killed the Iranian thug Soleimani who was working hard to turn Iraq into another Lebanon where Iranian-controlled forces are the major actor in local politics, that is their right. And we would leave. As we did in 2011.
And just as after 2011 when the Iraqis came to pay the price for our departure and regretted their decision when ISIL overran large chunks of their country, they will again regret the price they will pay. But will we return again when they find that Iran is actually the party undermining their sovereignty while we were trying to bolster it?
I want to stay in Iraq. I think it is in our national interest. I think it is in Iraq's interest. I hope we talk them out of carrying out that impulse. But at some point we can't prevent the Iraqis from being stupid and self destructive. All we can do if that happens is get out of the way and work the problem.
The Iraqis may also want to consider that if Iraq expels American troops, we lose any restraint we face in hitting Iranian targets inside Iraq. The Israelis will see our departure as a green light to do what they do in Lebanon and Syria routinely--strike and destroy Iranian military targets.
So if Iraq really wants to signal it is going to ally with Iran against America by expelling us, they might want to consider whether they want to be our enemy again. But I doubt this bill effort amounts to an actual ejection.
UPDATE: I wondered about the issue of a departing prime minister signing the virtue signaling act, and Powerline adds information on the farce (via Instapundit):
Not only is the resolution non-binding, but the caretaker prime minister isn’t legally authorized to sign the bill into law.
The Iran-friendly members of parliament could have saved a lot of effort by just Tweeting "Orange Man Bad."
UPDATE: I do not think the American letter to Iraq suggests we are packing our bags:
An official U.S. letter suggested coalition forces were preparing to leave Iraq following a vote by Iraq’s parliament to expel foreign troops, according to a letter sent Monday to Iraq’s Ministry of Defense, only for American officials to later deny the claim.
If asked to leave we obviously would. But seeing that the Iraqi legislation is not an actual order to leave any time soon, we called the bluff to nullify the optics of the request.
If the Iraqi pseudo request to leave was based on our failure to recognize Iraq's sovereignty as the proponents claim--which is BS in light of what Iran does--this letter undermines that claim tremendously.
UPDATE: The letter that was released wasn't sent or even signed. Apparently it was a draft mistakenly released. This from television news yesterday.
Although if we were smart it was no accident. As I said, it is good for both our friends and foes to know that of course we'd leave if asked because we aren't an occupying power.
UPDATE: Via Instapundit, someone else noted how poorly the media has described the Iraqi parliament maneuver.
UPDATE: Note that I have experience with these types of "legislation." I wrote plenty of resolutions sent by the Michigan State Legislature (or just one of the two chambers) to various entities urging them to do or not do something. Those had no legal force and simply signaled an opinion with a little more gravitas than a sternly worded letter.
