Will Iran go broke trying to maintain their foreign wars?
[Will Iran]l turn out to be another Soviet Union, which drove itself into collapse by waging a costly arms race with the United States. While Iran’s rulers have no aspirations to be a superpower, they do seem to covet being a regional hegemon as the Persian Empire was. So far, Iran has waged war on the cheap by using proxies rather than massive troop commitments as the U.S. did in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. But as Hezbollah has discovered when its Iranian subsidies were slashed, even war on the cheap can be expensive.
Iran has reduced their support for insurgents in Afghanistan because of their financial problems.
But our actions prompt reactions. It isn't a straight line to a financial breaking point. Iran is trying to adapt to American-imposed sanctions:
Iran plans to manufacture $11 billion worth of products in the next two years to replace some imports and help contend with crippling U.S.-led sanctions.
The Islamic Republic aims to produce electrical, automobile and telecommunications goods and double exports to 15 neighboring countries in order to reach a target value of $48 billion, Reza Rahmani, minister for industry, mining and trade, was cited as saying by state-run Islamic Republic News Agency.
Iran has a lot of experience in breaking sanctions through smuggling and bribery. Perhaps things are different now and coping isn't as possible as it was in the 1980s.
Is Iran stuck in a cycle of subsidy cuts and violent protests?
As Iran struggles under crushing U.S. sanctions following President Donald Trump's unilateral withdrawal of America from Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers, its elected civilian government and those in its Shiite theocracy will face ever-tougher decisions on where to cut costs.
Those cuts will more than likely target its vast system of government subsidies that make life affordable for its poor, from low-cost electricity in their homes to the bread on their plates. Any move to increase those prices will draw further protests. But the government may not have any other option.
My view is that it is very likely that Iran will lash out--at America:
As I've said, while economic sanctions are considered an alternative to war, if sanctions are really effective the target of the sanctions will see them as little different than kinetic attacks and may consider kinetics in response. ...
The Iranians waged war on Gulf shipping in an effort to make the Arab states pay a price for trying to block Iran's oil exports, and loudly practiced military maneuvers in the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate the ability to close the strait.
It wasn't too long before frustrations on other fronts of the war seems to have led Iran to expand the war at sea to include America[.] ...
Iran has said if they can't benefit from Hormuz oil shipping routes that nobody should be able to. If our oil sanctions really do start to bite deep without Iran able to significantly evade the sanctions, Iran will consider military/terrorist options in response.
And perhaps we quibble over whether this Iranian option is "very possible" or "very probable:"
“I think the strike on Saudi Aramco in September is pretty indicative of a nation that is behaving irresponsibly,” said Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, the commander of U.S. Central Command, in a Friday interview, referring to the Sept. 14 Iran-sponsored attack on Saudi facilities that took half of Riyadh’s oil production offline. ...
“My judgment is that it is very possible they will attack again.”
Iran has tried a military/terrorist response already--but avoided targeting Americans. If Iran believes America is waging a war on Iran via financial pressure, and it is working, Iran may very well decide to roll the dice with a military confrontation since they are already effectively losing a war with America.
At the very least the Iranian mullahs may believe even a losing confrontation with America will rally their angry population around them and gain sympathy in Europe.
And for God's sake, keep our capital ships our of the Persian Gulf. The situation is too tense and volatile to predict we know when we are in a peacetime situation or on the verge of a shooting war that Iran will initiate.
UPDATE: Iran is losing, but tries to resist our sanctions--with Europe's help:
One victory has been the economic support of the EU (European Union), which disagrees with the United States decision to revive sanctions against Iran. These sanctions have worked and the EU response was INSTEX (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges). This is a financial system, designed to get around American economic sanctions. INSTEX is a barter system that enables INSTEX members to pay Iran for oil or other exports via barter.
And there is much more about Iranian harmful activities.
Perhaps we should announce that American military protection for oil traffic will not necessarily extend to countries participating in INSTEX.
Remember, the EU is not our friend. Consider INSTEX another piece of evidence.
UPDATE: Yes, call what the Europeans are doing "appeasement" of a horrible regime.
UPDATE: CENTCOM should check ammo and double the watch, in my view.
