Oh come on!
Russia is taking advantage of the power vacuum created by America’s desire to disengage from the Middle East. President Obama launched the policy of “pivoting” away from the region, and President Trump is carrying that policy forward. As a result, Russia is emerging as a dominant military and political force in the region. It intervened heavily in Syria’s civil war and was instrumental in saving the Assad regime. It was instrumental also in the Iran nuclear negotiations, sometimes supporting pressure on Iran and sometimes defending Iran at the United Nations. Russia engineered a new five-nation treaty among Caspian Sea states, assigning them their littoral rights.[2] And it negotiated an end to Syria’s civil war.
For its decisive military support to Assad, Russia has been rewarded with access in Syria and control over upgraded military bases – the Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim air base.[3] From those bases it can project power into the Middle East, the Balkans and farther west along the Mediterranean. In conflict, Russia is positioned to execute an area-denial strategy against the United States.
In Syria, Russia’s military operations decisively affected the civil war and also tested and demonstrated capabilities that showed off Russian boldness, lethality, flexibility and reach.[4] Russia used manned aircraft to strike targets in Syria beginning in September 2015. Many such attacks were launched from Khmeimim, which it has, since that date, expanded and improved with new radar, drone and other technology.[5] The attacks included the first combat use of different types of Russian precision-guided munitions.[6]
The authors use a lot of adjectives to boost Putin's military reputation. But that is really all they've got.
Okay, the authors have a point about the pivot to Asia really being a pivot away from the Middle East. But hasn't anybody noticed that the Russians are not in fact 18 feet tall? Putin isn't Stalin and he doesn't command that military power of Stalin no matter what Putin wants the world to believe.
What has Russia won in Syria?
The Russians bought a pile of trouble to get bases in the Mediterranean Sea region. I don't understand the point of Russia expending effort to get a foothold in Syria. I don't think that it does them any good other than to remind them of their Soviet glory days. And I really don't see the point of Russia's escalating role in eastern Syria.
Russia got a sugar rush from their Syria intervention that will wear off as the grind of dealing with that Hell Hole continues to suck resources from Russia. Putin will need another short and glorious war to restore the rush. And one day the short and glorious war will turn out very obviously badly for Russia.
Seriously consider whether the Syria adventure is really all about justifying the conquest of Crimea.
And what should we be impressed about with Russia's military effort in Syria?
Russia saved Assad but a lot of that was the result of our refusal to help rebels win and our successful defeat of ISIL. And check me on this, but the war doesn't look over.
Sure, Russia demonstrated that yes, their longer-range missiles work, which should be the entry level for military competency and not a "golly gosh, let me change my underwear" moment.
On the debit side, Russia demonstrated their lack of precision weapons. Russia demonstrated the sorry state of their only aircraft carrier. Russia demonstrated that America could slaughter a small battalion of Russia's vaunted mercenaries. And Russia has a wreck of a country to rebuild and they can't afford it.
Sure, we should worry about Russian electronic warfare--which the Russians have long apparently been good at. But Russia got plenty of experience already in the Donbas against a tougher foe than irregulars and terrorists. And we are seeing what Russia does up close.
As for an area denial role in the Mediterranean Sea? Their forces will lead a short but exciting life in a war.
Russia is just casting a giant shadow. Putin can bolster his image by dancing around the memories of Stalin (glossing over the mass-killing stuff), but he's no Stalin. And modern Russia is no superpower. And as a regional power with continents-spanning territory, Russia has serious defense problems that Putin is effing up royally.
Watch the Russians. Prepare for them. But don't make them the central problem. They just aren't that capable in the vast gulf between nukes and special forces.
Really, the process of reducing the American military footprint in the Middle East to pre-1990 levels is not an abandonment of the Middle East--to the Russians or anyone--unless you also consider the post-World War II to 1989 American policy in the Middle East as one of abandonment.
UPDATE: Related:
Since 2014 Russia has been making a lot of headlines but not much else. The economy is a mess (stagnant and shrinking), the country has fewer allies and the future looks dim. Invading Ukraine (2014) and Syria (2015) has not helped solve any of the fundamental problems but have made for great propaganda. What went wrong? Russia entered the 21st century with a new elected government dominated by former secret police (KGB) officers who promised to restore economic and civil order. They did so but in the process turned Russia into a police state with less political and economic freedom.
Not that Russia isn't a threat. But it is a threat that NATO can contain or defeat if it retains the cohesion to do so.
