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Tuesday, October 22, 2019

The Banality of "Disaster"

Despite the talk of how violent and hopeless Afghanistan is, this year the monthly death toll was under 250 civilians killed per month:

So far this year Taliban and Islamic terrorist violence has killed about 240 civilians a month, and wounded nearly twice as many. About 20 percent of these casualties were caused by roadside bombs and landmines. The rest were usually the result of RPG, mortar or gunfire. The Taliban prefer to kill from a distance, the better to deny they were responsible or for the attackers to be identified by name. ...

Compared to Western nations Afghanistan has always been a much more violent place. Tribal cultures usually are, especially when so many of the tribes have a long (thousands of years) tradition of organized and disorganized violence. American Special Forces troops, who began operating in the countryside regularly after late 2001, were somewhat surprised at the number of old wounds found on women and children, as well as men. Violence and homicide had never been measured in Afghanistan but after 2001 Special Forces medics and foreign medical aid groups saw more evidence to the violence and realized this was normal for Afghanistan and the addition of foreign invasion, rebellion and warlord activity (like the Taliban), while less frequent, were also a traditional aspect of life in Afghanistan.

Compared to the Iraq War where monthly civilian casualties were far greater--sometimes more than ten times in the worst months of Iranian- and Syrian-supported Iraq violence--at 250 per month, Afghanistan is almost peaceful now.

Afghanistan is a place where violence and death are common. So the casualty level isn't something to panic about and head for the exits in defeatist exit strategy mentality.

We can win the Global Troubles that don't rise to the level of warfare:

Americans aren't war weary. Or war apathetic. Americans are perhaps realizing that we've joined the rest of the world whose people long faced endless violence. Travel and media got good enough that our long isolation in the New World has shrunk the distance that once kept us safe from global troubles.

And it is an adjustment Americans have to make if we are to carry on until a victory that might not come for many decades.

Work the problem and help our allies fight our common enemies. They are willing and the death toll really isn't a disaster as we think it is. They're used to this.