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Friday, September 27, 2019

The Dog That Did Not Bark in the Tsentr

So Russia's latest in their series of strategic wargames was low key:

Russia’s annual major autumnal exercises are usually accompanied by a loud propaganda campaign advertising the country’s military might; this year, however, official reporting on the Tsentr 2019 war games was rather low key.

Why was it low key? Well this might explain it:

The strategic design for Tsentr 2019 was focused on testing Russia’s capabilities to project military power into Central Asia[.]

The only foe who might challenge Russia for influence in Central Asia where the Soviet Union once ruled is China.

Notwithstanding Chinese participation in Tsentr 2019, when Russia is still in appeasement mode toward China, it's best not to advertise this exercise.

UPDATE: China isn't terribly popular n Central Asia:

Notwithstanding twenty years of increasingly prominent political, economic and security relations, China remains poorly understood and even feared among Central Asians.

Russia has some leverage to compete with a stronger China. But it may not be able to pretend to be China's ally much longer if Russia wants to reassure Central Asians of Russian support.