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Thursday, September 12, 2019

A Third Narrative in Make-Believe World

Could Russia and India become a major power alignment in Asia?

The third order, unlike the American and Chinese versions, is neither inspired by antagonism toward any particular country nor achieved through the violation of international law or trade practices. Moreover, the third order is reflective of the geopolitical realities in the region, based on a multi-polar, rules-based, mutually beneficial framework. Given the enduring shadow of the Sino-U.S. rivalry, India, and Russia have their task cut out in framing this third narrative.

Maybe. They had close defense ties in the Cold War era.

But the idea that such an alliance doesn't have to be focused on any particular country as a potential common foe is simply nonsense. An alliance without a potential common enemy just doesn't exist. What's the purpose for hitching yourself to another country if not to oppose a third country?

Calling the alignment a "narrative" doesn't make the task make sense. That task is out of reach in the real world.

Russia is mostly anti-America and India is mostly anti-China. So whose priority is supposed to be the basis of the notional India-Russia alliance?

Given that Russia should be anti-China with a safe European rear area bolstered by friendship--or at least a solid truce--with NATO to hold their Far East against Chinese claims, it makes far more sense for Russia to change their outlook.

But is Putin capable of making that change? Hey, if enough Russians figure out that Putin has effed up royally, maybe a post-Putin Russia would be free to make that change.