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Saturday, August 17, 2019

The Verdun of Syria

Assad gained full control of Aleppo after years of fighting. What did Assad win?

Yeah:

Nearly three years have passed since President Bashar Assad's forces gained full control of Aleppo, sweeping out rebels who had held the eastern half of the city through years of fighting.

That victory made Aleppo — Syria's largest city — a symbol of how Assad succeeded with crucial assistance from Russia and Iran in turning the tide of the long civil war, clawing back most opposition-held territory in the country's heartland and ensuring Assad's survival.

But Aleppo is equally a symbol of how Assad has been unable to secure full victory in the war or bring total security to Syria's people — and appears unlikely to in the near future.

Yeah, Assad survived. But the war goes on. As the news shows:

Syrian forces gained more ground from insurgents in the country's northwest on Thursday, edging closer to a major rebel-held town a day after militants shot down a government warplane in the area.

The government offensive, which intensified last week, has displaced nearly 100,000 people over the past four days, according to the Syrian Response Coordination Group, a relief group active in northwestern Syria.

The war goes on. But victory in Syria can only be defined in terms of Assad's survival. How will his backers react to that over time?

UPDATE: I've compared the city to Verdun before. Although I thought Assad would break his army and fail to take the city when I wrote that. Assad has a broken army but he does have the city.