Russia's fleet is not coming back:
On July 28, 2019, at the national Navy Day parade in St. Petersburg, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is planning to upgrade its surface fleet in terms of both quantity and quality. But this bold declaration is unlikely to become a reality – the state of the Russian arms industry simply doesn’t allow for it. What is more, in the state armaments program for 2018-2027, a key point was to develop strategic nuclear forces and ground forces by compensating with a reduction in the cost of conventional naval forces.
Most of the ships received will be small vessels or non-combat auxiliaries.
This should be obvious but bears stating:
It is also worth considering that Russian naval forces are divided into 4 fleets: the North, Pacific, Baltic, and Black Seas, as well as a separate Caspian flotilla. This greatly reduces the possibilities of concentrating them together and objectively limits Russia’s combat potential at sea.
And worse for Russia:
Moscow needs to build at least 3 more strategic submarines, 7 cruise missile submarines and one special-purpose submarine over the next decade – a total of 11 nuclear submarines. In contrast, in the previous decade – in much more favorable economic and political conditions – Russia only built 8 such submarines, including those still in testing stages before being incorporated into the fleet. And in addition to these current plans, there is also the maintenance and re-armament of existing nuclear submarines deemed fit for an extension of their service lives. In all likelihood, Russia will not be able to fully implement these plans, so by the end of the 2020s the number of cruise missile submarines will not exceed 12-14, while the number of ballistic missile submarines will be no more than 8 units.
My view is that Russia is a land power and needs ground forces and supporting air power to defend its huge border.
Russia's need for a navy is limited to a coastal defense force plus strategic ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) and attack submarines both nuclear and conventional.
The coastal defense force protects the coast from invasion and attack plus it defends sea bastions where the SSBNs roam in protected regions to maintain a secure nuclear deterrent. The attack submarines defend the bastions.
This is vital because even with ideal defense spending Russia has problems defending its long border without the threat of using nuclear weapons. Russia probably needs to use "tactical" nukes to hold off a serious invasion. And Russia needs safe strategic nuclear weapons to deter an invader escalation to city destruction in response.
The good news for Russia is that despite periodic announcements of grand fleet plans--including, be still my heart, aircraft carriers--Russia seems to understand that a blue water fleet weakens Russia.
Do read the article. It is interesting.
