Hong Kongers have noticed that China has been whittling away at their special status of freedom ever since 1997. But responding too harshly could cause problems abroad and at home:
China did not want to endure the domestic and international backlash that would accompany a severe (sending large numbers of activists to jail and some “disappearances”) crackdown on the pro-democracy movement. For one thing, it would be bad for business. But more democracy would be bad for the communist government, which would lose power in a democracy. Most people in Hong Kong and a growing number in the rest of China believe that democracy should be given a chance. These Chinese have noted how so many Western ideas have benefitted China, often after some modifications to suit local needs. Why not democracy as well? After all, it works in Taiwan and Singapore. To the Chinese government, this is very dangerous thinking. Since 2014 China has tried to slowly and quietly eliminate the many freedoms granted to Hong Kong in 1997 and that effort has now backfired in s spectacular way with larger and larger demonstrations in Hong Kong making it clear what the locals thought about their freedoms.
Maybe this is the spark that sets China ablaze. Certainly the Chinese rulers feared Tienanmen Square in 1989 was the potential beginning of the end in a similar process that shook the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe. I'm sure plenty of CCP rulers tell themselves that only slaughtering protesters in 1989 prevented China from experiencing Russia's 1989 and 1991--the downfall of the Russian communists.
So China may again crush aspirations for freedom. That's how it has worked so far. Hong Kong is small and China is large. And the Chinese Communist Party will sacrifice economic growth and domestic tranquility if the CCP thinks that is the price to retain a monopoly of power. The CCP has killed on a far larger scale than will be necessary to crush the latest freedom movement.
If China does again suppress or kill the latest protest movement, the other problems in the cluster remain. The effects of winning in Hong Kong could spark collateral damage in the other problems.
And if Taiwan loses the delusion born in the original 1997 agreement on Hong Kong that being part of China isn't a death sentence for freedom and perhaps quite literally, an effort to promote democracy might seep into China itself. A large dictatorial China can crush small democracies. But a free China would not be a threat to freedom.
Who knows, with the CCP relying more on nationalism than communist discipline to keep people behind the party, what if nationalists decide that democracy is the best way to reunite successfully with Taiwan and to keep Hong Kong loyal?
Many futures might be possible in China.
UPDATE: Strategytalk on Hong Kong. Demands are escalating and so is the government response.
UPDATE: Our government is supportive of the Hong Kong demonstrators. But Trump himself should say more in support of them and not parrot Chinese lies about "riots."
Yes, we are not going to go to war with China over Hong Kong. And at some level soft words from our president can be helpful as long as we are using some form of stick to back the protesters who essentially want freedom.
But pretending that communist thugs aren't communist thugs is no way for our president to act.
UPDATE: Michael Yon continues to film the not-riots underway in Hong Kong.
UPDATE: Our trade hard ball is hurting China as it has weakened from other factors. Timing is everything.
UPDATE: And remember that while the protesters have social media and a desire for freedom, the government (party) has the guns and the desire to prevent freedom. When you Twitter a king, kill him.
UPDATE: Is a brutal crackdown coming in the next couple months?
And if so, what does Britain do? Britain is party to the 1997 agreement that is supposed to preserve Hong Kong freedoms for half a century. Britain should have a role, no?
But with a hard Brexit and new elections likely in the near future, can Britain afford to be anything but inward focused? The stalling by the Remainers on Brexit is causing real harm to Britain by keeping uncertaintly going; and now real harm to Hong Kongers who may not have Britain to provide even moral support.
